Monday, October 15, 2012

Nolte: Looking to creep up on the inside of the barrier

Maverick and disenchanted Liberal Party member, David Nolte is looking at climbing the preference latter. Nolte expects to out-poll Brian Shanahan and collect his preferences which according to Nolte will place him above Morgan/Elliot team and the Greens. Nolte claims he has 15% of the vote and Kevin Chamberlin 6-8%.  With Morgan Elliot expected to poll less than 8% Nolte could in theory rise to over 30% and if he is able to pickup Singer and Greens (16%) preferences hopes to cross the line in a photo finish.

Notle's "Family First" preference pipe dream  is just that a pipe dream.   First he has to secure 15% (We put him below 10% which places him on a knifes edge competition between Singer and Morgan) His main barrier is the Singer/Greens alliance. Whilst Singer has preferenced Shanahan/Chamberlin in the voters book Singer's HTV card distributed throughout Melbourne preferences the Greens directly. Add to that the fact that Robert Doyle picks up the donkey vote  Nolte form is not looking good.

Team Doyle has  suffered a blow with the Age effectively engaged in a campaign to unseat him with allegations of possible corruption and misuse and abuse of office in order to extract campaign funding.  Who this will benefit is difficult to say.  With all main contenders struggling to attract media attention and the electorates awareness.   With most voters (and candidates) living outside the city their appeal and chances of surviving the preference race is minimal.

The Age's campaign hopefully will reduce Team Doyle's vote in the Council (C9) race.  If team Doyle falls below 40% they will only win 3 C9 seats - Team Doyle do not pickup any substantial preferences in the predetermined HTV ticket vote.

The overall campaign of the minor players including Singer/So, Morgan/Elliot, Shanahan/Katz will falter and pull-up lame in the MelbCity wide Municipal Race.

Doyle has three main advantages that could see him cross the barrier ahead of the pack.  He has incumbency - This means he has more news coverage then any other contender. He picks up preferences from Brian Shanahan (based on the book) and whith Shanhan out of contention he also picks up the Donkey vote and that of his running mate Keith Rankin who is top of the ballot. Ranking preferences Doyle no 2 in the voters book.  This is enough to see Doyle hope even if he has justr 38% primary support.,

The Donkey and indirect Donkey vote is what favoured Doyle in 2008 and will do so again in 2012.

It would take much more than the Age's campaign and unsubstantiated assertion of corruption to derail the Doyle LM race.

As to Nolte he is throwing his money to punters who backed him and who are tearing already up their tickets even before the race results have been called.

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