Sunday, October 28, 2012

Election Results: Preliminary Analysis

The preliminary Analysis of the Melbourne City Council 2012 elections results indicate that incumbency and name recognition is the biggest winner. 

The Singer John So campaign failed to attract support with Gary Singer's team polling the same percentage as they did in 2008.

The Greens vote also did not increase, although they have won two seats this time, primarily as the number of councillors had increased and, as a result, the quota  for election was less than in 2008. Down from 12.5% to 10%,

Incumbency and voter recognition was without doubt the main factor.  Robert Doyle had been on the news everyday you could not shut him up. Team Doyle outspent every other team combined.  It is estimated that they spent over $15,000 for every percentage point of the vote they received (approximately $30 a vote).

The winner was  Stephen Mayne, in the absence of an endorsed Labor Candidate and the power of the band names of John So, the Greens and Gary Morgan/John Elliot, was the next candidate highest candidate with a recognition factor.  Mayne polled 6% of the primary vote, 2 % more than expected, was the benefactor of a 2.5% surplus delivered to him by the Morgan/Elliot group (10.325%) which elected Jackie Watts and Gary Singer (12.5%), This  boosted Mayne's primary vote to 8% placing him with a vote on par with the Greens surplus plus the allocation of preferences from the African Community Business group.

Team Doyle polled a strong 39% with a surplus of 9% (1% more than expected) after electing three candidates, placing Carl Jetter on a higher transfer vote than community candidate Kevin Chamberlin who had polled just below 6%.

Carlton identity and pharmacist David  Nolte team was boosted by support from "Stop the Rorts: Residents First group placing his lead candidate Richard Foster also in the 8% ball park.

Kevin Chamberlin was unable to pickup any preferences of real value and was excluded earlier than expected. Chamberlin's preference vote when redistributed elected Stephen Mayne and the Greens second candidate, Rohan Leppert. Leaving Team Doyle's fourth candidate, Carl Jetter, on the table with the wasted quota.

The results of the C9 Council election would have been different if the the system was pure proportional and did not use the Droop Quota system.  Droop Quota is derived by dividing the total number of votes by the number of vacant positions plus one (x / (9+1) = 10%).  A pure proportional system would have a quota calculated by dividing the total vote by the number of vacant positions (x / 9 = 11.11%)  That one percent was crucial in deciding the outcome

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