Thursday, October 11, 2012

Day Three: All ballots posted

The VEC should have posted all ballot papers by Today. They had dispatched them in three lots over the last three days.  Any voter who has not received a ballot paper in the mail should contact the Returning Officer and request a new ballot be sent out.

To date I have been door knocked by one party only (Gary Singer), I have received a letter box drop from Robert Dole and the Greens. (The Greens card was printed on one solid paper one side only (So much for their concern on the environment)

Analysis of past voting trends indicate that most voters having chosen a Candidate or team to support will vote according to the team/candidate's recommendations published in the candidates information booklet. In 2004 only 9% voted below the line of those a vast majority still followed the general group recommendations.  Below-the-line voters tend to stick with the team they originally had chosen, changing the order of candidates but then preference more of less the same as the group vote. Of those that differ a majority (All up 3%-4% ) "Inverse Donkey" vote filling in the ballot from the top down left to right.  Because the spread of below-the-line votes favours no particular candidate and they tend to stay within the group chosen the Below-the-line vote is not expected to have any significance in the outcome of the election in terms of the group vote. Of course it does effect independent ungrouped candidates whoes supporters have to vote below-the-line.

In the end it is only a question of magnitude. The most significant question is what percentage of the overall vote will Team Doyle, the Greens and  Gary Singer's group attract. All three are in the hunt for two or more places (Team Doyle is hoping to secure over 40% of the vote and absolute control of the City Council.  Both the Greens and Gary Singer group are pushing to secure 20%.

The Greens are assisted by outsider former Templestowe Councillor and serial candidate, Stephen Mayne. Stephen Mayne is expected to attract less than 3%-4%  and then top up the Greens to give them a second seat.  The Greens who are expected to poll around 14%-16% surplus must remain above Mayne's primary vote. The odds are in the Greens favour to out-poll Mayne who is effectively is by default a feeder candidate for the Greens, part of the payoff for Greens preferences in the Melbourne State Seat by-election.

Given that the campaign has failed to attract any serious media coverage we are down grading our estimate for minor candidates and upping the estimate for the main players.

Roshena Dutta
The prospect of Team Doyle polling over 40% of the ticket votes is alarming and if it comes true would spell a period of discontent and further decline in open and transparent governance in Melbourne.

It is for this reason that we advocate that voters place Team Doyle and the Greens last and have chosen to support community based candidates listed on the Shanahan Chamberlin ticket.. Young Lawyer/Community activist Roshena Dutta is certainly worthy of your support.

Please vote below-the-line and remember to number all candidates in order of your choice.Ballot papers must be received by the returning Officer no later than 6PM Friday October 26

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