Baring a major mishap or The Age's political campaign begining to bite and undermining Team Doyle's vote the results of the Lord Mayor election is most likely going to be a contest between Robert Doyle and Gary Singer with Brian Shanahan being an outside chance. Doyle remains the favourite. The Greens Alison Parkes - pulling up lame towards the end of the count, can not win
In the Council C9 Stakes it is the same old stable hands that cross the line., Only 12 Candidates out of the 40 starters have a chance of winning.
The Thirteenth wild card selection is Roshena Dutto. Roshena Dutto has run an excellent grass roots campaign behind the scenes attracting the support of Williams Street and the Indian Community. An experienced Lawyer and community advocate Roshena has been endorsed by Vasan Srinivasan President of the Federation of Indian Associations of Victoria. She shows promise if not in this election in the election promising candidate.
|1||LOUEY, Kevin||TEAM DOYLE|
|4||WOOD, Arron||TEAM DOYLE|
|5||PINDER-MORTIMER, Beverley||TEAM DOYLE|
|11||MAYNE, Stephen||MAYNE *|
|12||JETTER, Carl||TEAM DOYLE|
* Stephen Mayne's chances of winning are remote It depends on the level of support for the Morgan and the Greens Ticket. Mayne's odds are 500 to 1. We estimate he will poll less than 3%. Carl Jetter (Team Doyle) can only win if Doyle polls in excess of 39%. All other candidates must poll or have an excess of greater than 5% to be in the race. (The exception is Roshena Dutto who can survive with a below the line primary of 3-4%). The Greens most likely to hold what is referred to as the "Wasted Quota" - Total votes / (Number of positions plus one) minus one. If the Morgan/Elliot team polls more than 9% and the Greens over 17% then the Greens will elect a second position on the transfer of votes from Stephen Mayne. Richard Foster (Note Team is also border line and if he falls below 5% will be replaced by either the Greens. If Jackie Watts (Morgan/Elliot) falls below 5% and Stephen Mayne is able to out poll her in the distribution or the Greens vote collapses (Falls below 15%) then Mayne has a chance to climb the pack and come up the inside rail.