Preliminary Analysis of registered HTV Cards shows that a Council divided amongst thieves and a disturbing trend of voters being wooed based on race.
The expected out come of the City Council ballot is as follows
Team Doyle (3 positions)
Singer and John So - Melbourne Living (2 positions)
Greens (2 positions)*
Shanahan/Chamberlin (1 position)
with a contest between Gary Morgan and David Nolte for the last position.
There is growing concern that voters are being wowed not based on policy but by race. Whilst the Melbourne Chinese Community is divided and a fair contest. Independent candidate Moti Visa is seeking to appeal to the Indian vote (with an estimated 2,000 to 3,000 voters of Indian descent).
If voters do cast their vote on the basis of race and follow Moti Visa's HTV card which steps though Shanahan and Chamberlin's number two candidate, Roshena Dutta, before landing on Morgan/Elliot lead candidate Jackie Watts. This should elect Watts ahead of David Nolte's lead candidate, David Foster who would be left with what is referred to as the wasted quota. Foster has one advantage in that he holds the first position on the ballot paper but this will not be a trump card as it is in the Lord Mayors race. The Greens stand to lose out with their second candidate to David Foster should they fail to receive more than 18% primary vote.
Stephen Mayne, who was defeated by David Nolte in the recent Melbourne State Seat by-election, is expected to poll around 2% before being excluded and having his vote distributed to top up Jackie Watts before flowing on to the Greens. If the Greens fail to win two seats then David Foster has a real possibility of creeping over the line.
There is an outside chance, unlikely, that Kevin Chamberlin's Number two candidate could be a contender for the last seat but this is dependent on her out-polling Moti Visa and remaining in the count to collect his preferences. Moti Visa's supporters need to vote below the line and there is reduced likely-hood that they will follow his ticket.
Kevin Chamberlin has secured his election on the of a sleezy deal with Team Doyle in which they have traded support for Doyle's Lord Mayor nomination in exchange for support in the Council election. Much of the Chamnberln's gamble is dependent on Doyle having a surplus of votes to distribute. In previous elections he had none. If Doyle pol;s three quota (30%) then their will be no spoils or surplus to hand on. It will be thanks Kevin for all the fish.
What is clear is that Team Doyle will elect two and no more than three positions on Council leaving Carl Jetter high and dry and defeated.