Saturday, November 01, 2008

Doyle and Ng in the race to the winning post in the Melbourne's Spring Carnival closing event

A contest between Doyle and Ng for Lord Mayor is the most likely outcome in the Melbourne Lord Mayor's Spring Carnival closing event.

According to Sportingbet Australia the three main contenders are Peter McMullin, Robert Doyle and Catherine Ng.

Whilst the ALP and the Liberal party candidates struggle at opposite end to gain voter recognition Catherine Ng is set to make a last minute sprint up the middle with John So's refugees posed to influence up to six spots on the City of Melbourne.

Catherine Ng, assisted in the race by incumbent Deputy Lord Mayor Gary Singer and the other minor candidates, who are all expected to all preference Ng before either Doyle or McMullin ahead of the Greens. The Greens are expected to go out forth last and in doing so will top up Catherine Ng handing her the keys to the limo.

The anticipated results of the election, highlight the fact that the direct election model for Lord Mayor does not deliver the best out-come for Melbourne

In our assessment the best of a motley crew would have been either Nick Columb/Sue Calwell or Peter McMullin/Tim Wilson. Had the Lord Mayor been elected from and by the City Council they would have been the main contenders.

Peter McMullin, whose preferences will play a decisive role in the outcome of the LM race, has put together a interesting team crossing the political divide. Tim Wilson, a senior Liberal Party strategist, has an impressive CV and extensive experience in business and governance issues. Peter McMullin brings to the table four-years experience on the Geelong City Council and one-term on the City of Melbourne back in 1996. Kevin Louey is the back room engine behind John So's Dragon Boat.

Melbourne will not get the best of the best.

Under the direct election model, the losers of the Lord Mayor's race will be out of the game. You either win or lose. There is no fallback and no option to serve in a supporting or review role.

Council set to give John So power by proxy.

Estimations at this early stage of the jocking for poll position is that no single group will elect more then one candidate. Anyone that is placed 3 or greater in a group will be eliminated early from the count.With most voters opting for above then line voting the results of the elections will be known soon after counting begins.

There are nine groups running for seven positions. Two groups will have to lose. The unaligned Forde/McEwan, who teamed up in the last minute, are expected to be the first group eliminated from the count.

Carl Jetter, hitching a ride on the Doyle ticket, is expected to top the poll followed by Kevin Louey (McMullin), Cathy Oke (Greens), Brian Shanahan (Ng), Jennifer Kanis (Fowles) with Clark (Morgan), Snedden (Columb) and Ken Ong (Singer)fighting it out for the last spot. There is an outside 5:1 chance that Doyle may secure a surplus over 0.6 which could play a significant role in who wins the last two positions. We will know more on Monday when group preference tickets are finalised.

If Ng wins the Lord Mayor's race John So's refugees, who have spread-out across the field would influence six out of nine positions on the City Council.

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