Saturday, November 29, 2008

Close call

VEC conduct under review

Time to reflect on days events.

Question: "How can someone win on 10% of the vote?"

Well it is 11% actually and it not clear if it is Singer or Ng on the hunt. It is close by all accounts which is why we believe there will be a recount. There is a huge unknown factor with the drift away from the book at around 40% or more.

We try and explain how the fold up might go.

The interesting close junctions are Singer/Ng virtually neck to neck at around 11%

The combined vote of Singer and Catherine Ng out polls the Greens in each case.

If Singer survives *** Morgan/Columb votes go to McMullin with drift from Morgan( now 27%) the Greens (now 19-20%) Doyle (29%) Singer 23%. Greens next eliminated bring Singer to the lead above Doyle and McMullin there is a close nexus between Doyle and McMullin exact value unknown due to drift to Doyle from Morgan But again it is close. With a McMullin/Doyle toss up Singer is best position to jump of the line either way

If Ng survives *** Morgan flows to Ng but with some leakage to both Doyle and McMullin. Ng is now on around 26-27% McMullin who is on around 25-26Doyle moves into the front at around 31% the Greens at 18% Greens are eliminated and the drift see McMullin at 33 Doyle 33% and Ng 34% It is potentially very close and the spilt can go either way Ng is in the best position as she collects most of the ticket vote and if she is ahead then the other is eliminated. So it is a question of who goes out and what value the drift is at this stage. No one is prepared to place bets at this stage. Some think it could be decided by a hand full of votes who is excluded and who is not. There is now two major junctions points Ng/Singer and the final three.

VEC Count under review

To add to the frustration the VEC failed to undertake a preliminary distribution into primary votes. reason unknown. They did do a manual sort for the city Council above the line which is the same size and effort had they distributed the leadership primary vote and did a manual count we would know the result by 12 noon tomorrow.instead it will take a good 12-14 hours to complete the data-entry and chances are there will be a recount. Under the circumstances where the VEC refused to maintain an open and transparent count and rejected the Parliamentary recommendation to undertake a preliminary first preference distribution anything within 1.5% merits a recount. (Had a preliminary sort taken place a recount would only be justified if the result was within 1%)

The Council seven have been decided on above the line preferences.
The winners are (With Primary vote indicated) Quota 12.5%

Candidate (Primary %)
JETTER, Carl (21.5%)
OKE, Cathy (18.7%)
CLARKE, Peter (9.1%)
LOUEY, Kevin (12.0%)
ONG, Ken (11.4%)
SHANAHAN, Brian (9.9%)
KANIS, Jennifer (10.4%)
(1% diff unknown)

I hope I have my maths right.

Again had the VEC undertaken a preliminary primary vote count as had been requested by most candidates the process and results would be much more clear and the count more transparent.

Apology in the offering but not good enough

I am also told that the returning Officer, Bill Lang, offered a private apology to Ray Collins who had been falsely accused by Steve Tully of threatening and intimidating VEC staff. This allegation was false and malicious.

A private apology is not good enough, Bill Lang and Steve Tully owe Ray Collins a public apology for what was clearly an act of intimidation on behalf of the VEC if not defamatory against Ray Collins. Ray Collins warned the VEC that the result was close and that a preliminary sort or manual count was the best way to proceed. They would not listen and Steve Tully made a false statement to cover up his wrong decision.

More on that soon when the count is over.

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