Friday, November 28, 2008

Spring Carnival Closing Event

Punters bets close 6:00PM today

An additional 10,000 votes arrive in the mail today. Punters have until 6:00 PM to place their bets. Sportingbet Australia is offering 5:1 on Catherine Ng. Catherine is the favourite to win the race with Peter McMullin (3.5:1)expected to be the other contender left standing as the horses cross the finish line.

The race guide promises an exciting bout and most punters will be hanging to their tickets until the end, with at least three conjunction points where the outcome of the race can be decided.

Race Guide anticipated fold up

The first three contenders to tap the mat are Shelley Roberts, Bob Crawford, and Joseph Toscano each polling less then 600 votes. Crawford and Toscano votes will top up the Greens and Roberts will go to Singer.

The next out will be either Singer or Column or Morgan. Singer's votes will flow to Catherine Ng and Columb Morgan votes will combine into one team.

The next elimination head to head will be between Will Fowles and the Greens. If Will is ahead of the Greens then the Greens vote will top up Fowles which would put him a head of Peter McMullin placing Robert Doyle back in contention. The odds are the Greens will out poll Fowles, in which case Fowles vote will top up McMullin placing him in the top three and the Greens set to top up Catherine Ng at a later stage in the race.

It is here the race gets exciting and punters begin to hold their breath and cling on to their form guide as they stare at their betting coupons and begin to pray.

If the combined vote of Morgan and Columb do not out poll the Greens and the two minor candidates then they are next to fall over Morgan's initial votes will flow to Catherine Ng and Columb's are expected to flow to McMullin/Wilson. There will also be an expected preference drift from both camps to Robert Doyle, who should be still standing at this stage of the race. However if Doyle polls at the lower end of expectation then the Doyle will be excluded and his vote will flow to Catherine Ng giving her the Yellow jersey earlier then expected. Doyle collects no support from other players and is relying on name alone drift to stay in the race.

The next elimination is the key when the Greens are exclude from the race. With Will Fowles out of the race the Greens top up Catherine Ng with some drift to Peter McMullin. At which time Catherine will be in a position close to the inside rail and a certain to win the race having came from behind and crawled up the middle. If for some reason Catherine Ng pulls up lame early in the race and Robert Doyle out polls her then McMullin is in a winning position.

Place your bets now while the odds are good and pray that the lord of the turf smiles on the last event.

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