Sunday, November 26, 2006

Upper Tally

Victorian Legislative Council Election

IMPORTANT UPDATE (Thursday November 5:30PM)

Change of fortune as predicted Southwick head South and takes the lead by the slimest of margins less then 150 votes and still counting (Click Here)

Click here for our latest analysis count datasheet details

UPDATE: (Monday November 27, 8:00PM)
Further analysis of the results as published by the VEC at 5:3OPM Monday November 27 indicates that postal, absentee and below the line votes will play a crucial role in the outcome of Western Victoria with a strong possibility of the DLP with the assistance of Family First could win the firth seat as as such deny the ALP absolute control in the Legislative Council. Other possible contenders are the National Party.

Latest fugars available indicate that the ALP may pull ahead of the Green vote which will mean the ALP wins the fifth spot and a third seat giving it absolute control of the legislative Council. Its a sea-saw close race with five competitors competing to the finish line.

All depends on the outcome of the race between Family First and the DLP, the National Party and the DLP, and the Greens and the ALP. There are thee main conjunction points that exist in the count and the result could tip either way.

It is difficult to make any accurate assessment due to the refusal of the Chief Commissioner Steve Tully to ensure that the counting of the election is open and transparent and subject to detailed independent analysis. His refusal to provide postal vote, absentee and prepolling statistics on the number of votes issued and the failure of the VEC to provide detailed polling both data further complicates independent analysis leaving many candidates and campaign managers in the dark. Akin to driving around Australia with a word map and no idea of the scale or distance. There are also issues with the data-entry/data quality of the VEC data with an additional space omitted in the DLP group name.

With the results of the election determined by computers it is essential that this information and details of the recorded preference allocations are readily available and that our election system is open and transparent. Mr Tully's refusal to provide this information, as requested, in a timely fashion brings the conduct of state election count into disrepute.

Attached below is a the latest theoretical distribution of below the line preferences.

Analysis of the Summary Results of the Upper-House election.

The following results of Saturday's count produced interesting reading as the results unfolded.

At one stage in the counting process it looked as though the Greens were going to lose all seats but as the count progressed the Greens, aided by People Power and Democrat feeders, crept across the line in two seats only (Southern and Northern Metro). Recent poll results have recorded a strong vote for Labor and the Liberals in Western and Eastern Metropolitan seats respectively. The gap has widened and with most of the vote counted it is difficult to see any change. As most of the parties have pretty much the same below the line vote it is difficult for any of the parties to bride that gap which is over 2,000 votes.

The election process was marred by the Chief Commissioner, Mr Steve Tully, who refused to provide information on the number of postal ballot papers that had been issued for each district. This information is normally available and provides an indication of what is outstanding and whether or not it will effect the results of the election. without this information there is no way knowing if that all illusive bundle of 50 votes will appear.

Mr Tully in spite numerous requests refused to make this important information available. WHY? Not having access to this basic information is akin to holding an election and not knowing the total number enrolled. If you do not know what has been issue how do you know what's missing.

This information is normally made available prior to the election postal vote applications closed on Thursday night. As a result of Mr Tully's refusal he left scrutineers of Monday nights count in the dark not knowing vital information as to whether or not Bronwyn Pike was elected or not. Bronwyn according to the VEC 2CP count was on a 1.5% margin similar to the 2002 election result but without knowing the number of postal votes that has been issued and the number of absentee votes yet to come in, she was left wanting.

The VEC’s conduct of the count of the election was certainly left wanting and raises question why do we need to 2 electoral commissions, the VEC and the AEC, this duplication is a waste of limited public resources. The web VEC’s site service was also inadequate with detailed information related to polling pace results not readily made available.

Further there were additional concerns that the Chief Commissioner and VEC staff had undertaken a, possibly illegal, preliminary early count of the results of the election recorded at electronic polling booths. If this is true then there are a number of questions outstanding in regards to the VEC’s rights to undertake a preliminary count of the election results prior to the close of the poll on Saturday night in the absence of scrutineers. If not resolved soon this issue will be subject to review by the Victorian Civil Appeals Tribunal and with the Chief Commissioner and staff called on to give evidence as to the conduct of the election with a report being made to the State Parliament.

Mr Tully has denied and refuted the advice provided by Glenda Fraser, Manager of Election Services, who in an email forward to the Media on Friday indicated that the Commission had in fact undertaken a count and analysis of first preference and 2CP results of votes recorded on the VEC electronic voting system. Quote: “After analysing the number of voting centre results entered last night for 1st prefs (District and Region) and 2 CP we have realised that everyone could be waiting around all night for what would be dribs and drabs that we do not anticipate would make an impact on the result” If it turns out that this account is true and the preliminary count was illegal then Mr Tully should resign or be sacked. A decision to sack Mr Tully would need to be made by the Victorian State Parliament.

Results of of the close of early this morning (Sunday November 26)

Metropolitan Seats (Click on the graphs below to view a larger version)

Rural Victoria

Note: See above for updated distribution graph. The ALP is currently ahead of the Greens in the count which could see it win the fifth spot and absolute control of the upper house.

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