Sunday, November 19, 2006


November State Election review

Election Night Update: Newspoll and ACNielson proves to be the most reliable polls published. The results of the election were more or less in line with their predictions with a last minute 1-2% swing to the Government on polling day. The Liberal Party in the upper-house suffered a 2% swing against them compared to the earlier polls two weeks out from the election.

The ALP picked up the 2% swing away from the Liberal Party and the Greens secured just over 10% of the statewide vote

ALP candidate Tony Lupton defied expectations and increased his lead in the polls which must be seen as a result of poor campaigner on behalf of Clem Newton-Brown. Comments on this blog correctly picked the mood of the electorate.

Prahran is a good barometer of the electorate and with the Liberal Party with only a 2% swing failed to win over Victorians and as such the seat of Prahran. Clem Newton-Brown would have fared better if Newton-Brown has campaigned on local issues such as bringing the seat of Prahran under the auspice of a Greater City of Melbourne.

The election was marred by Chief Commissioner Mr Tully who refused to provide statistical information on the number of postal votes issued (a document that is not confidential and in the past this information was readily available - see posts above) bringing both the VEC and the election into disrepute. Victorians and the new Parliament need to ask do we really need two public electoral offices duplicating what is essentially the same services at considerable cost to the state and the public purse. Judging by Mr Tully's performance the answer is no.

Prahran is the litmus test of the inner-city seats.

It has been won by Labor and the Liberals alike. It is the only inner-city seat that has regularly changed hands and provides a good indicator as to the mood of the electorate. It is one of the most diverse and most exciting of all the lower-house seats. It has the richest and the poorest all residing within its boundaries.

This is an electorate where direct contact and interaction produces the best results.

Robert Millar held the seat back in late 70's prior to losing it to Don Hayward in the 1985 State Election. Liberal candidate and former Local Government commissioner Leoine Burke held the seat until 2002 when Labor won the seat back in thew Bracks landslide. Notionally it is a Liberal seat and come Saturday it is expected the Liberals will win it back from Labor.

This campaign is shaping up to be one of the most interesting battle between the traditional title holders. A fight between Labor, who hold incumbency, and the vibrancy of the Liberal Party's candidate.

The key to this electorate is door-knocking, face to face contact with the voters. If you are not seen and not interacting with the community then you are behind the eight ball. Mail-outs don't count. This is the main advantage to Liberal candidate, Clem Newton-Brown. Clem is well known and has been seen regularly standing outside the Prahran Market campaigning for the seat for months, well ahead of the official campaign period.

A former Melbourne City Councilor, former Deputy Lord Mayor under the failed Lord Mayorship of Ivan Deveson. Clem stood against John So for the position of Lord Mayor in 2004 but failed to attract sufficient support and preferences to topple So's popularist charm.

The Labor Party runs the risk of over saturating the electorate with direct mail and leafleting something which could backfire.

The righteousness of Family First has become a bit of an liablilty with civil rights and "christian family values" comming into direct conflict with the policies of gay activist and Greens candidate, Justin Walker.

Justin Walker was outed recently in the Herald-Sun for some of his extreme views. (Columnist and full-time blogger, Andrew Landeryou, writes in more detail) All of which do not help Labor hold on to the seat.

Clem needs a two party preferred swing of just under 5% from the 2002 results. Although Labor is helped slightly by the Donkey-vote (which happens to be the Greens how to vote card) the odds are currently in Clem's favor to win the seat .



Candidates information
2002 Election results


Anonymous said...

Melb City, do you think the IR issue will effect the vote in an electorate like this?

MelbCity said...

I think all issues are of relevance. But the issue of a need for some form of checks and balances of a Howard Liberal Government which has absolute control of the Senate as well as the house of representatives is one of the big issues for those that are undecided or wavering on how to vote. If your concerned about civil rights issues this must weigh heavily on your mind.

Anonymous said...

Well here's some local analysis worthy of consideration given the outing by Chris Tinkler in the Sunday Herald Sun of the Green's candidate, we certainly need to understand the real two main contenders. The Landeryou blog takes it a step further and even provides details of the orginal web pages that caught the ire of the Hun.

Ari on the Web
"As for the Lupton campaign, there's been a decent volume of mail (although even then it is dwarfed by all the Clem-aphenalia) but crucially it lacks the ability to cut through. Every week there's been a personally addressed letter banging on about the wonderful achievements of St Steve and the horrors of evil Mr Baillieu, but it reads like it came straight out of the Labor election campaign kit. It lacks colour or movement or a sense of excitement.

My hunch is that the Lib's have identified Prahran as an electorate which is likely to swing. The resources poured into the Clem campaign must surely dwarf what even the candidate himself thought possible. This is no longer merely a young local upstart tring to shave a couple of percent of the sitting member. This is now a concerted, highly funded campaign focussed on the end game."

Anonymous said...

I think you are a bit out of touch on this one. Clem has not received central party resources. Nothing in the letter box since before the election. Sticking posters on bikes and chaining them to fences is not what i call good campaiging. Lupton is running a high contact campaign - that even clem complains about. Clem is in danger of being seen as a clown rather than a serious candidate. Bells and whistles are no substitute for solid campaigning. I think Lupton is going to do quite well.

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