Saturday, January 14, 2006

Analysis: Victorian Senate vote 2004 to new Legilsative Council regions

Analysis of the 2004 senate vote based on the new Legislative Council boundaries

Being interested in electoral reform we thought it would be of some general interest and value to do an analysis of the 2004 Victorian Senate vote as it would apply to the new Legislative Council boundaries.

We chose the Senate because it provides an opportunity to access the relative strength of all the main political parties who nominated candidates for the Senate (The National Party had a joint ticket with the Liberal Party). This analysis is not 100% accurate as the preference negotiations and registered party allocations would be significantly different under the new eight electorate model but never the less we consider it worth reflecting on.

In our analysis we allocated and distributed the vote according to the registered "above-the-line" preferences for the 2004 Senate elections. No assessment has been made at this stage to consider the impact of below the line voting (This may effect the outcomes of the last position elected. We are waiting on further information from the Australian Electoral Commission which would enable more detailed analysis to be undertaken.

Analysis (Modified to reflect McGauran's defection to thw Liberal party)

Based on the 2004 Senate result our analysis indicates that the Liberal/National Party coalition would have obtained an absolute majority (21 out of the 40 members) of the Legislative Council.

Eastern Metropolitan Region (Lib, ALP, Lib, ALP, Lib)
Eastern Victoria Region (Lib, ALP, Lib, ALP, Lib)
Northern Metropolitan Region (ALP, Lib, ALP, Lib, Grn)
Northern Victoria Region (Lib, ALP, NP, Lib, ALP)
Southern Metropolitan Region (Lib, ALP, Lib, NP, Grn)
South Eastern Metropolitan Region (Lib, ALP, Lib, ALP, FFP)
Western Metropolitan Region (ALP, Lib, ALP, Lib, ALP)
Western Victoria Region (Lib, ALP, Lib, ALP, NP)

ALP (16) - (32.27%, 30.66%, 42.82%, 27.11%, 27.15%, 39.71%, 48.50%, 35.21%)
Liberal (18-19) - (49.11%, 50.45%, 33.38%, 53.50%, 49.93%, 42.65%, 33.39%, 46.76%)
National Party (3-2) *
Green (2) - (8.33%, 7.59%, 13.28%, 5.39%, 15.01%, 6.43%, 6.24% ,7.39%)
Family First (1) - (2.17%, 2.46%, 1.25%, 2.61%, 0.78%, 2.25%, 1.55%, 2.11%)

* the Liberal/NP ran on a single ticket with the NP listed no 2

Addendum (21-24 January 2006)

Please Note: The Liberal/National Party stood on a single ticket with the National Party listed at second place. For the purpose of the analysis the Liberal Party and National Party are considered one. In the case of non rural seats it is the Liberal Party support that contributes most to the outcome of the analysis.

The recent defection of Julian McGauran from the National Party to the Liberal Party would reduced the National support to two-three seats. Previously seats that would have been won by the Liberal Party were allocated to the National Party as they held the number two position on the coalition ticket. I have now reallocated those seats back to the Liberal party.

Some readers have not understood this fact. I thought that it was pretty obvious in the analysis listed above.

Clearly not to some. If the Liberal/National Party continue to run a joint ticket with the National Party second on their ticket then the National Party would win the second spot as indicated assuming all else is equal. Again This is a preliminary analysis and more detailed analysis is pending receipt of additional information requested by the Australian Electoral Office (Including below the line data).

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