Melbvotes: Stephen Mayne falls short of his expectations

Stephen Mayne has had a lower than expected support.  Unable to to man the polls fully, Mayne's campaign has failed to bite.  Mayne is seen overall as a spoiler anti-labor trouble maker candidate, whose sole aim is to feed preferences to the Greens in exchange for Green preferences in support of his opportunistic bid for the City of Melbourne Council election in October.  In spite Mayne's feeble and misleading attempt to portray himself as a Liberal Candidate by wearing a t-shirt in Liberal colors, Stephen Mayne has been challenged by Family First, the DLP and Independent Liberal candidate David Nolte.  Mayne is expected to poll below 10% and possible as low as 6%.

Poll workers are reporting a lower then expected turnout which may favour the Greens. There is a lot of resentment towards the Green's open door policy for people smugglers which has highlighted their inability to play a constructive roll in government. Even Cathy Oake was trying to play down this issue during the Friday media door stop. Overall poll workers are saying there is a better mood at the booths then in 2010.

The Socialist party and other minor feeder groups including the now defunct and unregistered "Australian Democrats" are actively trying to direct preferences to the Greens but they are being eclipsed by the more conservative Christian groups (DLP, Family First and Australian Christians - The Holly Trinity) are silently and effectively campaigning  away.  All three have successfully maned each polling place.


The Australian Sex party has also manned each booth but they are not as active in their campaign.  The Sex Party which trades mainly on its name, unlike the  Conservative Christian groups, will not be able to direct preferences.  The Holly Trinty are expected now to out poll trouble serial candidate Stephen Mayne.

Voter Turn-out and David Nolte key to Melbourne By-election

As expected low voter turnout and performance of Liberal member David Nolte is the key to the Melbourne by-election to be held on Saturday July 21

A low participation rate will play into the hands of the Greens who are battling to win the inner City seat from the ALP. Up for grabs is 28% Liberal Party vote.

The Liberal party has not endorsed a candidate in this election. Liberal member and order city of Melbourne Councillor and local pharmacist David Note is vying for Liberal Party members vote. Competing against David Nolte is maverick and controversial serial candidate Stephen Mayne. Steven Mayne's votes a crucial to the Greens chances in winning the seat.

 If Mayne is able to survive the count and out-poll Nolte then Mayne will pick up Nolte's preferences. Mayne however has not reciprocated Nolte's support, Mayne's preferences will flow on to the Greens which could see them come tantalizing close to winning the seat. However if Nolte manages to man the booth and the voter turn-out remains high then the ALP stands a good chance to retain the seat with an expected win by 2% to 3%.  Mayne's recommended preferences will not hold with an expected drift of 33% to the ALP ahead of the Greens.

 he DLP is expected to collect preferences from other Christian groups and provided they can stay in front of the donkey vote they will be a contender for Mayne. The estimated percentage of Mayne's votes range from 4.5% to 9%.  Noltle would need to attract most of the Liberal Party support base and he is pitching to win 15% + overall.

When combined with the Anti Green vote and the Sex Party the ALP should be able to scape home the victor. The Donkey vote and inverse Donkey vote (where voters select their chosen party then preference from the top of the ballot down filling in the blanks) is expected to benefit Nolte and then flow on to the ALP.

Given the number of minor candidates running the Green Primary vote is expected to fall. In the end it will be a close election but the drift in Preferences will not favour the Greens. We should know the outcome of the election after the results of three booths are recorded. ( At about 8PM) this will indicate the strength of each party and the swing in preferences.

Whilst the election will be influenced by Party branding and national issues the end result will be played out on local issues. TAFE, health and public transport and planning being the main focus.

Those voters that are influenced by national issues are already determined and very few are swinging voters.

The Greens have come under a little more scrutiny since the 2010 election and cracks are beginning to appear in their brand image, which is tainted by local influences. North Carlton residents have had to endure Greens on the City of Yarra. High rates and poor quality local services are all negatives to the Greens bid to win the inner city state seat.

North Carlton will be a seat to watch. It is also te district that David Nolte is best known. The Greens will do well in Kensington but not as well in neighbouring Flemmington.

The electoral map of the Melbourne electorate will be redrawn as the demographic changes in the. Inner city begin to apply their influence.

Over the last two to three State elections there has been a noticeable shift in Liberal Votes up from 19% to 27% in 2010. It is for this reason that the Liberal party supporters will decide this by-election and much depends on who they will support in the absence of a Liberal Party endorsed candidate.

Voting is compulsory and those who do not vote will be subject to a fine.

It is for this reason that we expect the Donkey vote to be the highest in recent times. possible as high as 7%

Overall we believe that push come to shove the ALP should be returned. Voter's wishing to maximize representation in Melbourne should place the Greens and Mayne last.

Stephen Mayne's grubby preference deal

Self advocate and serial candidate Stephen Mayne has entered in a grubby preference deal with the Greens in order to secure the Greens support for Mayne's tilt at the City Council elections in October.

Both the Greens and Mayne have placed the Christians (Family First- Australian Christians and the DLP) last.


Mayne has back stabbed Liberal Candidate David Nolte and has preferenced the Greens ahead of Nolte in his How to vote Cards. (Notle was dupped into placing Mayne 3rd on his HTV cards only to find out that Mayne sold him out and placed the Greens ahead of the liberal party.

Mayne's cynical move has brought Nolte's campaign to an abrupt holt.  up for grabs in the election is the 27% Liberal party votes that were recorded in the 2010 ballot. Both Mayne and Nolte hope to attract the support of liberal Party voters.  Whilst David Nolte is the only member of the liberal Party standing in the by-election offically the Liberal party has not endorsed any candidates.     Mayne picks up preferences from a host of rat bag socialist candidates but misses out on the Family First and DLP vote all which favour Nolte ahead of Mayne.  if Mayne can survive Nolte, his main rival Mayne will then go head to head against the Greens in what could be a three way battle.  Labor's candidate Jennifer Kanis is well placed on preference picking up most preference allocations ahead of the Greens The greens are 100% reliant on Stephen Mayne for any chance at winning the seat. Local polls show that it will be a battle between the greens and the ALP with the ALP maintaining a home advantage. 

The defunct Australian Democrates have abandoned their policy of a balanced how to vote card and have preferenced Mayne ahead of the Greens. Sex Party, which is expected to poll around 4-5% have preferenced the ALP behind David Nolte.  If Notle, who also benefits from the Donkey vote, out polls Stephen Mayne, Stephen Mayne's show comes to an abrupt holt. Mayne is expected to poll around 7% and (backed by the likes of Jon Faine, ABC radio) will take votes away from the Greens and partially the Liberal Party. in the absence of a liberal party endorsed candidate the donkey vote is expected to be much higher in this by-election, possible as high as 6% and could play a decisive roll in the outcome of the ballot

City Councillors battle it out for State Seat

Melbourne City Councillors seek election to the State seat of Melbourne. Incumbent City Councillors, Jennifer Kanis (ALP), and Cathy Oke (Greens) will battle it out against former Melbourne City Councillor and local Pharmacist David Nolte (Independent).

David Nolte is well known in Carlton and surrounding areas. His close association with the Liberal Party is also a factor in this election.

The Liberal Party has decided to not endorse a candidate for the election and as such the election is wide open.

In 2010 the Liberal Party polled 28% of the vote The Greens 32% and the ALP 36%.

David Nolte is competing against serial candidate and controversial Manningham (Templestowe) Councillor Stephen Mayne for the conservative vote.

David Nolte is expected to pickup the lion's share of the Liberal party vote and come in third ahead of Steven Mayne. Both Mayne and Nolte along with Family First, the DLP and the Australian Christians are all preferencing the ALP ahead of the Greens giving the ALP a clear lead in the outcome of the election.

The ALP and David Nolte are both the beneficiary of the "Donkey Vote" estimated to be worth 3% to 5%. Sex Party swinger, Fiona Pattern, is expected to poll 4% to 6% on the party name alone.

Election Day is Saturday, July 21.

An Early voting centre has been set up at Level 1, Urban Workshop 50 Lonsdale Street, Melbourne for those voters who are unable to attend a polling place on election day

Too smart by half. Candidate in breach of Victorian Legilstaion

Candidate alleged to be in breach of Victorian Electoral Laws may be subject to six months to five years imprisonment for publishing false and misleading information.(84, 93
148 of the Victorian Electoral Act)

The information on the HTV Card published on the candidate's web site advocates that voters to cast an informal and invalid vote. Section 94 of the Act requires that voters indicate preferences for all candidates in order of preference sections 84 and 148 list a possible prison sentence of six months to five years imprisonment for the publication of false and misleading information likely to deceive voters.


Section 84 provides a defense for the publication of false and misleading information if the person responsible was not aware of the error. This would be extremely difficult for Gerrit Schorel-hlavka as he is the person who has authorised the offending material

Gerrit Schorel-hlavka also claims he is a Lawyer in spite the fact that he is not a registered solicitor or barrister. Complaints against the candidate have been lodged with the Victorian Electoral Commission who is investigating the alleged breaches.

If found guilty of contravening the Act Mr Schorel-hlavka would be prevented from running for state elections

John So for Melbourne

If John So or a independent candidate of similar standing, who was able to attract 20% primary support and the preferences of minor parties votes ahead of the Greens and Labor, could win the state seat of Melbourne.

Analysis of the electorate vote has indicated that Labor could lose the seat but not to the Greens.

Labor's endorsed candidate Cr. Jennifer Kanis just does not have community profile to win in her own right. Her term on the City of Melbourne Council has been noted for her lack of community engagement in public debate. She has no community base and the electorate is open to contest from a candidate that is better known. A candidate that can attract preferences ahead of the Greens will win the seat provided the Greens will preference them ahead of Labor.

The Greens are not in a winning position to win the seat. Melbourne is a seat for labor to lose to an independent candidate.

Cr Kanis is expected to resign from the City of Melbourne Council if she is to contest the state seat. A count-back of the 2008 preference votes would see  Lisa Muscatello who had the support of 74 primary votes elected to fill the vacancy.

Scammers take their toll - Media remiss in its reporting

Late last year we exposed a scam involving a company called TecSavvy who would call prospective victims seeking to gain access to their computers and details related to the financial accounts. This scam came to light when I had the misfortune to purchase a Skype number that was previously used by the scammers as their support hotline and I started to receive to receive the complaints.

I contacted the Australian Federal police and the Media. Journalist, Wes Hosking wrote an article which was published in the Herald Sun. Sadly the article focuses on the Skype number and not the modus operandi of the scam. The name of the scammers was not published.

It is with much sadness and despair that this weeks ABC Consumer Quarter reported on Internet scammers. One of the girls interviewed said that her father's account had been wiped out by a scam that was identical to the one that I had tried to have the media and authorities expose. Even the ABC failed to mention the name of the company involved.

America acted to block the scammer's account why not Australia? I can not help but think the media and the Police failed these people.

Costing Councillors

Source. Sydney Morning Herald

HOW much do the elected members of local councils spend on themselves out of ratepayers' money? In today's electronic world most now have a mobile phone and a computer or iPad at public expense to help them do their job, but what about other benefits such as mayoral cars, taxis, hospitality and trips to conferences?

This information is tucked away in councils' statutory annual reports which must show the cost of facilities provided to councillors and their expenses.

An analysis of these figures - which do not include mayoral and councillor allowances that typically cost a council another $200,000 to $400,000 a year - shows Camden has Sydney's most frugal councillors, spending just $6592.59 on facilities and expenses in 2010-11.

The biggest spender on councillors is Hurstville, which outlaid $390,604.50 on facilities and expenses last year - down from $446,308 in 2008-09. This included $93,144 on office equipment for the dedicated personal use of councillors, $46,511 on conferences and seminars and $48,259 on dinners before council meetings and other catering. The largest council - the City of Sydney - spent less than $4000 on office equipment.

The next biggest spenders were Fairfield ($234,053), Campbelltown ($222,139) and Holroyd ($212,829, after taking out the cost of citizenship ceremonies). Liverpool stands out among the bigger outer-suburban councils with a modest expenditure of $50,826.

Despite a statutory requirement to provide these figures they are not evident in the recent annual report of Botany Bay Council.

Hurstville Greens councillor Anne Wagstaff put forward a motion some time ago that the ''council is neither to make available, nor serve, any alcohol to councillors or staff prior to the conclusion of all council meetings on any given day''. She was the only one to vote for it.

''We need to support the provision of a phone, a computer or an iPad, and reasonable allowances for a carer, transport and sustenance to encourage and ensure people from all backgrounds, in particular women, consider being a councillor,'' Cr Wagstaff said.

''In setting what are 'reasonable' allowances, councils should be guided by the Australian Tax Office or other similar government standards.

''However, the provision of such items should not be abused, such as claiming the full sustenance allowance when at conferences where plenty of food and refreshments are provided.

''Hurstville's weekend workshops at distant resorts at Terrigal and the Hunter Valley and alcohol with dinner before council meetings are not necessary or appropriate.'' Hurstville council provides a sustenance allowance of $154.80 a day at conferences, even when meals are part of the package. Marrickville councillors follow Tax Office guidelines and are not paid if a meal is provided nor reimbursed for alcohol.

Men at work: Greg Ham found dead at his Carlton Home

Greg Ham, Men at Work and Relax with Max flautist, saxophonist musician and friend has died at the age of 58.
The news of his death is devastating. Greg Ham was a long standing resident of Carlton and he will certainly be missed.

Photo Herald-Sun

My thoughts and wishes go to Toots (Linda) and the kids and his sister Rosy.

Call to remove Free Booze from Council's table

There is growing concern at the level of alcohol the Lord Mayor and Councillors are consuming leaving rate payers to pick up the tab.

The City Council along with members of State and Federal Parliaments need to set an example by removing alcohol from the table and replacing it with less intoxicating beverages. The City Council has a moral and legal duty of care. Staff and Councillors should not be drinking to excess.

Every time you see the Lord Mayor you begin to wonder just how much booze has he been drinking and what effect all this booze is having on his health.

Our City Councillors should undergo a blood test and health check admist concern that some may have a serious drinking problem. Alchole should only be available, if at all, on special occasions accompanied by a full meal. There must be limits placed on the amount of booze supplied to our City Councillors and statesmen. If the City Council provides free booze it encourages excessive drinking which in turn effects the bottom line and our City's governance

The Lord Mayor, in spite his election promise, has retained the chauffeured driven limousine in order to ensure that he is safely driven from one function to another and returned home safe. At an estimated cost of over $100'000 for the driver and cost of running the limo plus the costs of top shelf beverages the office of the Lord Mayor is costing ratepayers well over half a million dollars a year.

Enough is enough. Our City deserves better, We can no longer support drunken councillors running our City. Booze must be removed from the menu. if Councillors want a drink then they can visit some of Melbourne's bars and pay for it themselves. Rate Payers should not be expected to pick up the tab for their excessive drinking habits.