If John So or a independent candidate of similar standing, who was able to attract 20% primary support and the preferences of minor parties votes ahead of the Greens and Labor, could win the state seat of Melbourne.
Analysis of the electorate vote has indicated that Labor could lose the seat but not to the Greens.
Labor's endorsed candidate Cr. Jennifer Kanis just does not have community profile to win in her own right. Her term on the City of Melbourne Council has been noted for her lack of community engagement in public debate. She has no community base and the electorate is open to contest from a candidate that is better known. A candidate that can attract preferences ahead of the Greens will win the seat provided the Greens will preference them ahead of Labor.
The Greens are not in a winning position to win the seat. Melbourne is a seat for labor to lose to an independent candidate.
Cr Kanis is expected to resign from the City of Melbourne Council if she is to contest the state seat. A count-back of the 2008 preference votes would see Lisa Muscatello who had the support of 74 primary votes elected to fill the vacancy.