Friday, July 20, 2012

Voter Turn-out and David Nolte key to Melbourne By-election

As expected low voter turnout and performance of Liberal member David Nolte is the key to the Melbourne by-election to be held on Saturday July 21

A low participation rate will play into the hands of the Greens who are battling to win the inner City seat from the ALP. Up for grabs is 28% Liberal Party vote.

The Liberal party has not endorsed a candidate in this election. Liberal member and order city of Melbourne Councillor and local pharmacist David Note is vying for Liberal Party members vote. Competing against David Nolte is maverick and controversial serial candidate Stephen Mayne. Steven Mayne's votes a crucial to the Greens chances in winning the seat.

 If Mayne is able to survive the count and out-poll Nolte then Mayne will pick up Nolte's preferences. Mayne however has not reciprocated Nolte's support, Mayne's preferences will flow on to the Greens which could see them come tantalizing close to winning the seat. However if Nolte manages to man the booth and the voter turn-out remains high then the ALP stands a good chance to retain the seat with an expected win by 2% to 3%.  Mayne's recommended preferences will not hold with an expected drift of 33% to the ALP ahead of the Greens.

 he DLP is expected to collect preferences from other Christian groups and provided they can stay in front of the donkey vote they will be a contender for Mayne. The estimated percentage of Mayne's votes range from 4.5% to 9%.  Noltle would need to attract most of the Liberal Party support base and he is pitching to win 15% + overall.

When combined with the Anti Green vote and the Sex Party the ALP should be able to scape home the victor. The Donkey vote and inverse Donkey vote (where voters select their chosen party then preference from the top of the ballot down filling in the blanks) is expected to benefit Nolte and then flow on to the ALP.

Given the number of minor candidates running the Green Primary vote is expected to fall. In the end it will be a close election but the drift in Preferences will not favour the Greens. We should know the outcome of the election after the results of three booths are recorded. ( At about 8PM) this will indicate the strength of each party and the swing in preferences.

Whilst the election will be influenced by Party branding and national issues the end result will be played out on local issues. TAFE, health and public transport and planning being the main focus.

Those voters that are influenced by national issues are already determined and very few are swinging voters.

The Greens have come under a little more scrutiny since the 2010 election and cracks are beginning to appear in their brand image, which is tainted by local influences. North Carlton residents have had to endure Greens on the City of Yarra. High rates and poor quality local services are all negatives to the Greens bid to win the inner city state seat.

North Carlton will be a seat to watch. It is also te district that David Nolte is best known. The Greens will do well in Kensington but not as well in neighbouring Flemmington.

The electoral map of the Melbourne electorate will be redrawn as the demographic changes in the. Inner city begin to apply their influence.

Over the last two to three State elections there has been a noticeable shift in Liberal Votes up from 19% to 27% in 2010. It is for this reason that the Liberal party supporters will decide this by-election and much depends on who they will support in the absence of a Liberal Party endorsed candidate.

Voting is compulsory and those who do not vote will be subject to a fine.

It is for this reason that we expect the Donkey vote to be the highest in recent times. possible as high as 7%

Overall we believe that push come to shove the ALP should be returned. Voter's wishing to maximize representation in Melbourne should place the Greens and Mayne last.

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