With one hour until the polls close voters in Melbourne are rushing to vote to avoid a fine. Voter turn out is expected to be lower than in 2010. Each of the main parties Labor and Greens are elected to poll around 32%. The big unknown factor is where will the 27% who voted Liberal place their vote?
A low turn out is expected to favour the Greens. Liberal Party supporters have been left high and dry not knowing who to support. Many will opt to vote informal or may transfer their vote to the conservative Christian Groups. Many Liberal voters are weighing up their choices "Greens versus Labor".
Many will cast a blank ballot and a considerable number will vote down
the ballot 1 to 16 starting from the top. A high informal vote and low
participation rate will boost the Greens chances. Independent Liberal David Nolte (Unendorsed) is expected to pickup a large swag of the Liberal Party vote.
There are a host of rat bag socialist, looney left, green left and "independent candidates" who are actively trying to win over a few votes (together they will represent less than 3% of the overall vote most if not all will lose their deposit).
Labor and Green preferences will not be distributed but all other candidates will.
So who will be left standing and who will get their deposit back? Those who are set to have their deposit returned are Berhan Ahmed (top of the ballot), David Nolte, Jennifer Kanis (ALP), Michael Murphy (DLP), Stephen Mayne, Fiona Pattern (Sex Party) and Cathy Oke (Greens) The rest are just stroking their egos. As one egocentric left candidate on the booths tried to make out that if the result is determined by 20 votes they will have been the king maker, which of course will not be the case. Most if not all the minor parties with the exception of the Christian alliance can not direct preferences. 40% or more will stray. The donkey vote, low voter turn out and level of informal vote will be the main decider.
We should know the overall results of the election by 7:30PM once the first three booths are declared.