The Australian Greens is set to elect a Senator in Victoria on the back of One Nation preferences to the Liberal party ahead of the Australian labor Party.
All being equal, analysis of the 2007 Victorian Vote using the 2010 ticket allocations has shown that the Greens will receive an additional bonus value arising from a flaw in the way in which the Senate vote is counted. The distortion in the proportionality gives the Liberal Party a bonus of over 7,000 votes derived from minor parties who are excluded from the count. This inflates the Liberal Party ticket vote and when transferred to the Greens tips them over the line and denying the labor Party a third senate seat.
Under the current rules a candidates surplus transfer value is calculated by dividing the surplus value by the number of ballot papers, disproportionately to the value of the vote. This inflated the value of the Liberal Party ticket vote which before being transferred represents only 20% of the surplus but under the AEC paper based formula the new transfer value carries 80% of the value of the surplus.
The Australian Parliament Joint Standing Committee on Electoral matters, which Melbourne Port's Micheal Danby as a member, was aware of this flaw in the system but failed to act to correct the system. ABC Electoral Analyst, Antony Green,m independently confirmed my analysis of the 2007 Victorian Senate election.
By failing to act to correct the flaw in the way the Senate vote is counted the ALP has already lost a Senate seat and the Greens are the beneficiary of Bonus votes that the system delivers at the expense of other minor parties would oppose the Greens platform.