The Victorian Australain Labor Party is facing a possibility of losing office. No longer in touch with it's Membership the Brumby Government is expected to be fighting for its survival. Internal Analysts are concerned that the ALP will lose two inner city seats in the forth coming Federal and State election. And that Victoria will follow Tasmania. Victoria's Premier, John Brumby has never been elected to office.
The next state election, due to be held in November 2010, will most likely see Labor suffer a 4 to 6% swing against it. The inner city seat of Prahran will be the first to change hands. Prahran is a litmus test. Liberal Party candidate and former Deputy Lord Mayor Clem Newton-Brown is expected to win Prahran in November. Clem "the Steven Bradbury of the Liberal party is expected to skate home riding the wave of disillusionment in the Brumby Government.
The Federal government is expected to go to the polls in September to avoid being pull down by the Brumby slide. The current disagreement between Federal Labor and the Brumby Government is not helping either the State or Federal Labor Party.
Clearly John Brumby is putting at risk both governments with his refusal to transfer responsibility for heath to the Federal Government. John Brumby who was once asked what his policy on reform stated that he would abolish State Parliament. A policy he has failed to implement.
John Brumby's unpopulararity is expected to also bring down his friend and inner city Federal MP for Melbourne ports, Micheal Danby. Danby currently enjoys a margin of 7% in comparision to the 2007 Federal election. Analysts expect that Danby will be pegged back to less then 2%. His survival depends very much on availibilty of the Liberal Party to tap into and take advantage of the State/Federal ALP division. The Liberal party is expected to run hard on the illegal immigration issue, an issue that labor can not win.
In 2007 the ALP had the support of One Nation in the Senate giving it a third senate seat. In 2010 it will not be in the same position. Minor Party preferences will be against it. The Liberal Party will retain three Senate seats and the ALP will win only two senate seats with the third seat, currently held by Family first, up for grabs.