Bob Cameron calls it a day as the community celebrates

Embattled and disgraced Bob Cameron has announced his resignation from State Parliament. His resignation is long overdue and he will not be missed. Cameron's Seat in Bendigo was in doubt as it was listed as one of the ALPs seats that could be lost.

Bob Cameron will be remembered for his disastrous term as Local Government Minister and his decision to adopt a directly elected Lord Mayor or Melbourne. The process of review undertaken by Bob Cameron of the City of Melbourne was a behind closed doors approach. No submissions were published . It was difficult to determine exactly on what basis Cameron supported or recommended the direct election model. The Melbourne Ratepayer's Association opposed the direct election model as did the various residential associations citing a lack of accountability and a distortion in the representative structure. Many submissions advocated an increase in the size of the Council and the need for the Lord Mayor to be elected by the City Council. Requests that fell on death ears.

If Melbourne is to continue to retain the direct election option it needs to separate the role of chairman from the office of the Lord Mayor, The number of Councillors need to be increased from seven to nine.

Cameron's departure is a welcomed move.

LNP to put halt to Green inner City invasion?

There is growing concern that the Greens may do a deal to favour the Liberal National party in November's State election.

This prospect of a deal comes as senior members of the National Party question the merit behind the Liberal party preferencing the Green's Candidate Adam Brandt in the Federal Seat of Melbourne.

Pat McNamara, former National party Leader, has stated that he would prefer to see Bronwyn Pike and Dick Wynne elected then a Green Candidate. McNamara questioned what value was in it for the coalition to reference the Greens in inner city seats if there was no benefit or preference flowing back to the Coalition?

Analysis of the recent Federal Election results indicate that the Greens could win the seats of Melbourne and Richmond but only on the back of Liberal party preferences.

The Greens new alliance with the ALP Federally might come under closer scrutiny and generate some tension in the partnership as they decide who is their best bed partner in the State arena

We can expect some fast and hard horse trading between now and the November State poll,

Labor on the rocks: Two inner City Seats at risk

The Victorian Australain Labor Party is facing a possibility of losing office. No longer in touch with it's Membership the Brumby Government is expected to be fighting for its survival. Internal Analysts are concerned that the ALP will lose two inner city seats in the forth coming Federal and State election. And that Victoria will follow Tasmania. Victoria's Premier, John Brumby has never been elected to office.

The next state election, due to be held in November 2010, will most likely see Labor suffer a 4 to 6% swing against it. The inner city seat of Prahran will be the first to change hands. Prahran is a litmus test. Liberal Party candidate and former Deputy Lord Mayor Clem Newton-Brown is expected to win Prahran in November. Clem "the Steven Bradbury of the Liberal party is expected to skate home riding the wave of disillusionment in the Brumby Government.

The Federal government is expected to go to the polls in September to avoid being pull down by the Brumby slide. The current disagreement between Federal Labor and the Brumby Government is not helping either the State or Federal Labor Party.

Clearly John Brumby is putting at risk both governments with his refusal to transfer responsibility for heath to the Federal Government. John Brumby who was once asked what his policy on reform stated that he would abolish State Parliament. A policy he has failed to implement.

John Brumby's unpopulararity is expected to also bring down his friend and inner city Federal MP for Melbourne ports, Micheal Danby. Danby currently enjoys a margin of 7% in comparision to the 2007 Federal election. Analysts expect that Danby will be pegged back to less then 2%. His survival depends very much on availibilty of the Liberal Party to tap into and take advantage of the State/Federal ALP division. The Liberal party is expected to run hard on the illegal immigration issue, an issue that labor can not win.

In 2007 the ALP had the support of One Nation in the Senate giving it a third senate seat. In 2010 it will not be in the same position. Minor Party preferences will be against it. The Liberal Party will retain three Senate seats and the ALP will win only two senate seats with the third seat, currently held by Family first, up for grabs.

State election Under Review The Parliament has just announced its review of the 2006 State Election

The Victorian State Government has just announced that it has set up joint house inquiry into the Victorian State Election.

The committee will be calling for written submissions next week and is expected to conclude its enquiry and report back to the State Parliament after June 30, 2007

There are many issues that we have identified in relation to the conduct of the State election not the least issues related to the VEC failure to publish copies of detailed results of the election (Including polling place results for the Victorian Legislative Council - The media will come in for a bit of a serve here).

In addition issues of serious concern in relation to
1) the lack of full certification of software used in the conduct of the election
2) members of the VEC accessing the results of the e-voting centre polling places prior to the close of the poll on Saturday November 25, 2006 in the absence of scrutineers
3) VEC handling of FOI requests
4) review of the Victorian Ombudsman Act in order to ensure that the Ombudsman has jurisdiction over the Victorian Electoral Commission and other issues.

The Parliament is expected to advertise the hearings next week.

Written submission can be forwarded to Mark Roberts, Executive Officer, Electoral Matters Committee, Parliament House, Spring Street East Melbourne.

No email address have been provided by copies of any submission could be also forward to the Speaker and President of the Parliament House.


More information

VEC avoids accountability and disclosure Detailed results of the State Election missing

The Victorian Electoral Commission has responded to our Freedom of Information request seeking copies of the "below-the-line-preference" data files, summary reports and additional information. Information was sent by the Victorian Electoral Commission to the wrong address and not the contact information outline in the Freedom of Information application.

The Victorian Electoral Commission in administering the FOI request has possible breached the provisions of the Victorian Electoral Act and or Privacy Act. A complaint associated with the Victorian Electoral Commissions handling of the application has been forwarded tho The Victorian Privacy Commission for consideration and review.

Access to the information requested is still outstanding.

The Victorian Electoral Commission went to extra-ordinary length and considerable expense in printing out in hard copy most of the information that was provide as opposed to just copying the information and forwarding it in electronic format. Why? we fail to understand but I am sure a few more trees died in vein as a result. We accept no responsibility for the VEC actions in this respect as we had anticipated and expected that the information would be provided in electronic format. Some people would be forgiven in thinking that the VEC provided the information in hard copy format in order to prevent its distribution, collation and data analysis. That might not be far off the mark. It is difficult to say but efficient and cost saving it was not. As the information was sent to the wrong address we have requested that the VEC re-forward copies of their response in electronic format this time. Saving time and money.

The Victorian Electoral Commission had responded to the FOI request in part only they failed to provided copies of all the information requested.

Missing are:

1. Copies of the below the line data preference data files as requested - No response given.

Copies of below the line preference data was provided free of charge during the 1999, 2002 an 2004 Melbourne City Council Elections. This information is readily available and would be no more then 1mb for each electorate and would take approx. 2 mins to copy per file and this information should be published on the Victorian Electoral Commission's web site.

Without access to the below the line data files it is impossible to effectively scrutinise of verify the results of the election.

The below the line preference data is a public document and precedence has been set in a ruling of the Victorian Civil Appeals Tribunal requiring that this information be made available.


2. Copies of all summary count sheets. (Although this information has been obtained via a third party - copies published on my web site http://melbcity.topcities.com/) Missing from the VEC responce data are copies of the summary distribution report of the preliminary count.

3. Copies of polling centers return summary results information for the legilsative Council (Upper-house) - similar information detailing polling place results in relation to lower house electorates was published by the VEC on their Internet web site.

The Victorian electoral commission has claimed that the cost of providing this information would be in excess of $600.00 which is very dubious and highly questionable.

The information is stored in electronic format and the cost of copying that information would be less then $2.00.

Polling place data for the Legislative Council is normally available and published on election night and updated through the count.

In the 2006 State Election the Victorian Electoral Commission failed to make this information available instead they only provided an electorate wide summary only. (The AEC provides senate results statistics broken down to polling places)

Access to the polling place summary data is fundamental in providing a check and balance as to the number of ballot papers issued and returned.

There were a number of substantial errors recorded during the conduct of the count of the Victorian State Election that had this information been readily available could have and should have been avoided. A quick summary of the polling place returns should have altered the Victorian Electoral Commission that a number of ballot papers had been missing or overstated prior to the distribution of any preferences. This information is still outstanding.

4. The Victorian Electoral Commission has provided limited information on the certification of software used to conduct the Victorian State Election count. Copies of certification certificates have been provided (but not yet received - due to the VEC mistake in addressing their response) for the electronic 'Kiosk' voting centres and the algorithm used in the calculation of the proportional representation results.

Missing is the detailed supporting certification documentation, reports and certification of the actual software related to the data-entry, front end, data storage and reporting software that utilises the algorithm used. Either the software used by the Victorian Electoral Commission has not been fully certified of the Victorian Electoral Commission has withheld access to this information.

In summary

The Victorian Electoral Commission again is seeking to avoid open and public disclose of the detailed results of the 2006 Victorian State Election.

A number of serious errors in the counting of the election have occurred and questions related to the discrepancy in the number of total votes record between the preliminary count and the recount in Western Metropolitan region have north been fully explained or verifiable based on the public documentation provided.

We are informed that copies of the below the line data files were not made available to scrutineers.

There is a discrepancy of over 450 ballot papers between the preliminary count and the recount. Without access to the polling place return data and the below the line preference data files, as requested, it is impossible to verify the results of the election .

It is fundamental that our public elections are open and transparent and subject to independent review and analysis.

With the utilisation of electronic computer based technology all relevant information and data files must be readily available to scrutineers and the public.

One can only ask

"WHY IS THE VICTORIAN ELECTORAL COMMISSION RELUCTANT TO MAKE THIS INFORMATION AVAILABLE THAT THEY ARE PREPARED TO GO TO SUCH EXTENTS TO AVOID DISCLOSURE AND ACCOUNTABILITY".

The actions of the Chief Electoral Commissioner and the Victorian Electoral Commission continues to bring 2006 Victorian State Election into disrepute.

Tully's up and Tally goes astray Chief Electoral Commissioner oversees Victoria's biggest electoral management stuff up and avoids accountability

Steve Tully, Victoria's Chief Electoral Commissioner in a article published in the Age Newspaper seeks to dismiss responsibility for the biggest stuff up in Victoria's electoral management. Mr Tully has tried to shift blame on the long hours worked by VEC staff and in doing so Mr Tully seeks to avoid and deny any accountability or responsibility.

Steve Tully and the VEC had poorly managed the election and the VEC made a serious error in the data-entry of the ballot papers by over inflating the result of the election and the Liberal Party vote by 6,000 votes. Mr Tully subsequently provisionally declared that the last position of Western Metropolitan Region was won by the DLP lead candidate candidate, John Mulholland.

The fact remains is that had the VEC done its job properly this monumental stuff up would never have eventuated.

We had prior to the November election and immediately following the ballot requested information on the number of ballot papers that had been issued and received by the VEC. Information that the Chief Commissioner Steve Tully refused to provide. WHY?

Had this information been provided and accounted for, as requested, the Electoral Commission should have and would have known before they pressed the run button that there was a serious flaw in the VEC data-entry process. A quick tally of the number of primary votes and the number of informal ballots would have alerted the VEC that something was wrong . This is the exact reason why we had requested this information in the first place. In accounting terms it provides a trail balance, a check digit that ensures that all votes recorded are account for. In previous Victorian elections this information was previously available.

The fact that Mr Tully refused to provide this information, as requested, undermines the integrity of the election and prevented effective scrutiny of the ballot. It also raises questions as to the integrity of the software in use. The VEC has spent millions of dollars in software development and basic checks and balance were not in place to avoid the error that inventuated.


The problem is Steve Tully and his refusal to ensure that Victoria's electoral process is open and transparent. His refusal to provide information on the number of ballot papers issued and detailed eloection results can not be excused.

This election has been one the worst managed elections on record. The VEC still has not provided the details of the election results and electoral commission continues to refuse to make the details of the election results public. In doing so Mr Steve Tully continues to bring Victoria's State election into disrepute.

There is no excuse for the Chief Electoral Commissioner to not publish the detailed results, including the full count sheet and the transcribed below-the-line preference data files.

Without access to this information it is impossible for the electronic election results to be effectively scrutinised or verified, denying the public the right of independent review and analysis.

The detailed election results are a public document and legal precedence already exist requiring the electoral commission to make the data readily available for independent review and analysis. The VEC should and MUST publish this information on its web site without delay.

If necessary we will make an fresh Freedom of Information (FOI) application to ensure that the election results are readily available. The necessity of having to make a FOI application is itself an abuse of process and one that should be of concern to the Minister and State Attorney General, Rob Hulls, who is the Minister responsible for both FOI legislation and the conduct of the Victorian Electoral Commission. Mr Hulls office has been made aware of the deficiency in the VEC's management of the election.

The Chief Commissioner's actions and the identified problems with the conduct of the November State Election warrants a parliamentary review and the Mr Tully's resignation.

Thornley expected to win Southern Metro Latest data from the VEC limited reporting indicates The ALP will secure the fifth spot

Latest counting reported by the VEC has placed the ALP Evan Thornley in a winning position with a lead of over 1,000 votes. Whilst the VEC continues its appalling lack of transparency in reporting the progress and results of the election count.

Analysis details can be found here

For reasons not fully explained David Southwick, based on results published Monday December 11, showed, went backwards in the actual count and the ALP and Greens moved forward over the weekend.

Counting in Western Victoria has the ALP below the Greens and the DLP who picked up minor party preferences above the National Party. As a result the fifth position in Western Victoria will go to the DLP with ALP Elaine Carbine missing out in being elected to the Victorian parliament.

Labor will hold 20 seats, the Liberal Party 15, NP 2, Greens 2 and DLP 1.

Who is John Barry Myers With Southern Metropolitan heading towards a photo finish every vote counts

History in the making with a close race heading to a photo finish

Southern Metropolitan is shaping to create another historical election event for Victoria with the contest for the last two positions being a close race. A race between the Titans. The best analogy we can come up with is a Yacht race or maybe a long distance marathon. Much depends on who can maintain the momentum as the count continues and who cross the line first.

With an election this tight every vote counts and the two biggest issues are "where does the below-the-line vote go once it leaves the group associated with their first preference vote" and "Who is John Barry Myers" the unaligned independent candidate who is currently on a total of 245 votes.

With a margin of less the 50 votes John Myers's votes (as is the case of every other vote) will play a potentially significant role in the makeup and control of Victoria's future Parliament.

Heading to the courts

All ready we see the contest for Southern Metropolitan heading to the courts, as each main party starts documenting every aspect of the election in anticipation that who ever loses the election will mount a challenge in the courts.

Questions will be asked about the roles and conduct of the Victorian VEC, the lack of information, openness and transparency in the conduct of the election.

All these issues, including our concerns about the Victorian Electoral Commission staff accessing the result of the e-voting polling booth data prior to Saturday's poll (Something Mr Steve Tully, Chief Commissioner, has emphatically denied taking place in spite evidence to the contrary) along with concern about Mr Tully's refusal to provide relevant information to candidates, campaign managers, staff, scrutineers and members of the public in a timely fashion preventing appinted scrutineers and others from monitoring and properly scrutinising the conduct of the election. All issues will be subjected to judicial review.

This could be a repeat of the 1985 Nunawading challenge where Bob Ives was denied a seat in Parliament following a court ruling that called for the election to be rerun. If this was the case then all five positions would have to face re-election leave the ALP without its leader in the upper-house. This would depend on wheather a court injuction would prevent any candiadte form taking office pending the outcome of any court challenge in 1985 Bob Ives was allowed to take up his seat but soon lost it when teh court declared the results inconclusive and callwed for fresh elections. Maybe the losing side will opt to save the public millions of dollars in the cost of a legal challenge and the cost of having to hold fresh elections in Southern Metropolitan Region but that would be asking too much when so much is at stake.

It's too early to speculate with certainty on the immediate aftermath of the election result. The vote is still continuing and there are an estimated (No one seams to know exactly) 30-50,000 votes to be brought on the table (where from who knows certainly not the public). VEC's lack of openness and transparency in the conduct of this election has little to be desired.

Southwick Heads South The Southern Metropolitan Region has just produced a change of fortune for ALP dot.com millionaire

UPDATE: (December 1 17:00) There was some residual counting left over from yesterday and Thornley has taken the lead once again as the three main players race to the finish line. Its neck and neck and anyone can come out of this race the winner.

At the crucial conjunction point the vote was ..
GRN 46863
ALP 46814
LIB 41714
FF 9696
DEM 9197


People Power had just been eliminated and they top up the Democrats who are marginally below Family First.

The Democrats votes flow to the Greens who on the Democrats ticket first preferences cross the line with minimal surplus. (This is the segmentation order at play) The Democrats still have another 4,387 votes to distribute (that came to it as second preferences + their below the line volts to their lower candidates). The Green surplus (256 votes) is then distributed to the ALP.

The Democrats remaining votes are then distributed to the ALP pushing Thornley over the line a head of Southwick. with a margin of less then 20 votes.

You begin to see how close this race is. Those 20 could easily disappear in the exhausted pile or drift from the below the line voters. The Democrats and People Power preferences are keeping the Greens in the race but Labor and the Liberals are catching up fast.

http://melbcity.topcities.com/ for latest analysis count sheet..




(November 30: 1700) Latest election counting has put David Southwick in the lead for the fifth spot in Southern Metropolitan: shattering ALP dot com millionaire Even Thornley's hopes of entering parliament and with t the ALP's dominance of both houses.

The long expected 7000 + postal votes have been counted and Southwick has received the lions share. It's literally with 0.04% less then 150 votes.

This will certainly go to a recount and may even go to court. There were a number of irregularities in the count with the Victorian Electoral Commissioner refusing to provide detailed information relevant to the conduct of the election. This would have to be one of the worst conducted counts in recent memory.

Already questions are being asked on a number of issues. The main issue appears dissatisfaction with the ALP decision to preselect a candidate in Western Metropolitan with close ties to Syria which has alienated Melbourne's Jewish Community who in turn dumped the ALP and voted on mass for the Liberal Party.

With the adoption of optional preferential voting Labor's fortune are expected to decline even further as many of the Green votes are expected to exhaust reducing Evans chance with them.

Update:

Andrew Landeryou has posted on the Other Cheek a real possibility that if the vote continues to unfold as it has in the last 24hrs ,where the Greens have been losing ground, there is realistic possibility that Evan Thornley could overtake the Greens and be elected on the back of a small surplus delivered to the ALP but the Liberal Party.

For each vote added to the table the quota changes. 2/3rds of each vote is absorbed in the existing four quotas.

Problem is we do not know how many ballot papers have been issued. We tried to get this information from the VEC but the Chief Electoral Commission was unable to unwilling to provide any statistics on the number of postal votes that had been issued. This information is normally readily available but for some reason Steve Tully refused to provide the data prior to Saturday's poll.

As a result it is difficult to ascertain. Certainly if there are more votes to be counted and the Greens percentage is declining then YES the Greens could lose out and could fall below Evan Thornley in which case Evan will cross the line first. Again its like walking around in the fog without necessary information. Another issue that needs to be examined is the impact of optional preferential voting. I am waiting to hear feedback from Scrutineers. Hopefully they will be able to secure a copy of the preference data file because without that there is no way they can properly scrutinise the election in this round without it. again this information use to be made available but Mr Tully has to date refused to make it available. With this election being close he will have to reconsider or face a court challenge.

Scrutinising elections in e-Space Ongoing of concern about the conduct of electronic voting and the need for information to be readily available

The conduct of the 2006 Victorian State election had little to be desired, with the Victorian Electoral Commission again proving that it is the lesser of the two public authorities responsible for the conduct of public elections in Victoria.

The refusal of the VEC to publish detailed polling booth data for the Legislative Council and its failure to provide statistical information on the number of ballot papers issued prior to Saturday's election has denied Victorians the right of an open and transparent election.

We are told that the reason that polling booth data was not provided is that the ABC
thought that the information was unnecessary for their purposes. If the provision of relevant data was too much for the ABC then the VEC should have produced two separate data files and left it up to the ABC what they wanted to report on.

The VEC has an obligation that goes beyond information the media. It is about maintaining open and transparent process.

Question: Will the polling booth data and below-the line-preference data be readily available after the declaration of the poll or do we have to FOI them again?

In future hopefully those in the loop will not only recommended but insist on full disclose of detailed election results and that includes producing data on the number of postal votes, pre-poll ballots issued along with electronic votes being identifiable from ordinary manual votes.

The issue of the VEC accessing the e-voting data before the close of the poll raises a number of issues of ongoing concern about the security of the electronic voting voting system that's been implemented. What mechanisms are in place to ensure that the results are true and accurate and subject to independent, effective and proper scrutiny?

The recent mid term elections in the USA also highlight a number of issues.

The world was told that Florida's elections were a true and accurate account, but there was no way to independently verify the fact.

Our system is a little different. We have a a preferential voting system, one of the worlds best and most democratic. With preferential voting the need to provide the preference data used to calculate the results is crucial. Even more so when it involves a third-party data-entry process.

Whilst there are some mechanisms in place to limit some data-entry transcription problems the system is still is open and susceptible to errors.

In previous election counts the VEC refused to do a preliminary manual throw of preferences, preferring to jump in and start the random data-entry process. This resulted in nightmare as it made it extremely difficult and close to impossible for scrutineers to monitor the accuracy of the computerised data-entry count. Another check digit removed.

A preliminary throw of the below-the-line votes not only helps with analyzing the outcome of the election but it also assists in the data-entry and scrutiny of the ballot. Scrutineers can decide which votes are of interest and devote resources accordingly. (We had the absurd situation, during the Melbourne City Council and other municipal elections, where if there was 20 candidates and 20 data-entry personal up to 400 scrutineers would have been required to properly scrutinise the data-entry process) Without a preliminary manual distribution scrutineers were denied the right to effectively monitor the various processes.

Unlike the VEC the AEC also provided information on the informal votes which was included in the data-set the AEC provided. This was very interesting and useful as votes of interest could be identified, pulled out and rechecked.

In providing copies of the preference data-set, Scrutineers are afforded the opportunity of undertaking independent analysis of the data as the count unfolds. Various electronic data queries could be run against copies of the data, queries that would not normally be undertaken by the electoral office, highlighting again votes of interest that could then be subject to a secondary glance and review.

Most of the issues discussed above diminish if and when we remove the third-party data-entry process altogether and voters record their electronic vote directly. As we move closer an closer to a time when voters will use computer technology to record their votes directly in real time new and additional issues of concern begin to rise . Issues such as the electorate office undertaking a preliminary count of the vote prior to the close of the poll. (As appears to have been the case in this election)

Electronic voting machines MUST be fitted with write once read only recording devices so that we can be confident that the data has not been hacked into from a central location out in cyberspace. Copies of this data and backup disk must be made available to scrutineers at the close of the poll. Each unit must also be stand alone and not be reliant on a central data connection. The last thing you want is someone with access to this data recording information, unknown to others misusing that data by either changing a few preferences or selling the information to interested parties (Political and commercial). At the conclusion of the count a certified and digitally signed data copy of all votes and preferences MUST be published on the Governments Internet site as part of the declaration procedures.

The issues that have been identified in America are the same here and world wide. The more elections move into e-Space the greater the significance in the provision of data in order to ensure that the election process remains open and transparent and is subject to independent public scrutiny. Without this information, as has been evident in this count, the public and scrutineers are left in the dark.

In previous elections polling booth data and the number of ballot papers issued were available and should have been in this election.

Upper Tally Victorian Legislative Council Election

IMPORTANT UPDATE (Thursday November 5:30PM)

Change of fortune as predicted Southwick head South and takes the lead by the slimest of margins less then 150 votes and still counting (Click Here)

Click here for our latest analysis count datasheet details

UPDATE: (Monday November 27, 8:00PM)
Further analysis of the results as published by the VEC at 5:3OPM Monday November 27 indicates that postal, absentee and below the line votes will play a crucial role in the outcome of Western Victoria with a strong possibility of the DLP with the assistance of Family First could win the firth seat as as such deny the ALP absolute control in the Legislative Council. Other possible contenders are the National Party.

Latest fugars available indicate that the ALP may pull ahead of the Green vote which will mean the ALP wins the fifth spot and a third seat giving it absolute control of the legislative Council. Its a sea-saw close race with five competitors competing to the finish line.

All depends on the outcome of the race between Family First and the DLP, the National Party and the DLP, and the Greens and the ALP. There are thee main conjunction points that exist in the count and the result could tip either way.

It is difficult to make any accurate assessment due to the refusal of the Chief Commissioner Steve Tully to ensure that the counting of the election is open and transparent and subject to detailed independent analysis. His refusal to provide postal vote, absentee and prepolling statistics on the number of votes issued and the failure of the VEC to provide detailed polling both data further complicates independent analysis leaving many candidates and campaign managers in the dark. Akin to driving around Australia with a word map and no idea of the scale or distance. There are also issues with the data-entry/data quality of the VEC data with an additional space omitted in the DLP group name.

With the results of the election determined by computers it is essential that this information and details of the recorded preference allocations are readily available and that our election system is open and transparent. Mr Tully's refusal to provide this information, as requested, in a timely fashion brings the conduct of state election count into disrepute.

Attached below is a the latest theoretical distribution of below the line preferences.

Analysis of the Summary Results of the Upper-House election.

The following results of Saturday's count produced interesting reading as the results unfolded.

At one stage in the counting process it looked as though the Greens were going to lose all seats but as the count progressed the Greens, aided by People Power and Democrat feeders, crept across the line in two seats only (Southern and Northern Metro). Recent poll results have recorded a strong vote for Labor and the Liberals in Western and Eastern Metropolitan seats respectively. The gap has widened and with most of the vote counted it is difficult to see any change. As most of the parties have pretty much the same below the line vote it is difficult for any of the parties to bride that gap which is over 2,000 votes.

The election process was marred by the Chief Commissioner, Mr Steve Tully, who refused to provide information on the number of postal ballot papers that had been issued for each district. This information is normally available and provides an indication of what is outstanding and whether or not it will effect the results of the election. without this information there is no way knowing if that all illusive bundle of 50 votes will appear.

Mr Tully in spite numerous requests refused to make this important information available. WHY? Not having access to this basic information is akin to holding an election and not knowing the total number enrolled. If you do not know what has been issue how do you know what's missing.

This information is normally made available prior to the election postal vote applications closed on Thursday night. As a result of Mr Tully's refusal he left scrutineers of Monday nights count in the dark not knowing vital information as to whether or not Bronwyn Pike was elected or not. Bronwyn according to the VEC 2CP count was on a 1.5% margin similar to the 2002 election result but without knowing the number of postal votes that has been issued and the number of absentee votes yet to come in, she was left wanting.

The VEC’s conduct of the count of the election was certainly left wanting and raises question why do we need to 2 electoral commissions, the VEC and the AEC, this duplication is a waste of limited public resources. The web VEC’s site service was also inadequate with detailed information related to polling pace results not readily made available.

Further there were additional concerns that the Chief Commissioner and VEC staff had undertaken a, possibly illegal, preliminary early count of the results of the election recorded at electronic polling booths. If this is true then there are a number of questions outstanding in regards to the VEC’s rights to undertake a preliminary count of the election results prior to the close of the poll on Saturday night in the absence of scrutineers. If not resolved soon this issue will be subject to review by the Victorian Civil Appeals Tribunal and with the Chief Commissioner and staff called on to give evidence as to the conduct of the election with a report being made to the State Parliament.

Mr Tully has denied and refuted the advice provided by Glenda Fraser, Manager of Election Services, who in an email forward to the Media on Friday indicated that the Commission had in fact undertaken a count and analysis of first preference and 2CP results of votes recorded on the VEC electronic voting system. Quote: “After analysing the number of voting centre results entered last night for 1st prefs (District and Region) and 2 CP we have realised that everyone could be waiting around all night for what would be dribs and drabs that we do not anticipate would make an impact on the result” If it turns out that this account is true and the preliminary count was illegal then Mr Tully should resign or be sacked. A decision to sack Mr Tully would need to be made by the Victorian State Parliament.


Results of of the close of early this morning (Sunday November 26)

Metropolitan Seats (Click on the graphs below to view a larger version)

Rural Victoria

Note: See above for updated distribution graph. The ALP is currently ahead of the Greens in the count which could see it win the fifth spot and absolute control of the upper house.

Early results Results in to date show Labor is in a winning position

Early results indicate a safe win for Melbourne, Richmond and Prahran for the ALP.

23:00

Late vote return shows the Greens creeping over the line on People Power and Democrats Prefernces

Greens scrape in in Northgern. Southern and Western Metropolitan Regions confirming earlier preictaions based on the News poll with a surprise win in the Westsern etro seat as tyhe ALP misses out on a fourth spot.


Melbourhne will not be known for some time and there is concern that the VEC has failed to provide information on teh number of Postal Votes that have been issued. WHY we fail to understand. Overall the VEC web site was hopeless. Lacking the nessassary detail as is normally required. Many issues behind the scenes need to be reviewed.





Richmond:
The Liberal party is out polling the Greens in Richmond and as such Richmond will be a safe seat

Melbourne:
Bronwyn (ALP) is set to retain the seat of Melbourne after a strong campaign in the last week. Greens vote lower then in 2002.

Prahran:
Tony Lupton set to retain Prahran against expectations. Prahran is the litmus test seat. A great result which indicates that the ALP will retain government. Well done


Upper-house result with 35% counted

Northern Metropolitan:
Early indications are that the results are not as expected 3 ALP 1 Liberal 1 DLP

Southern Metropolitan:
Expected result 3 ALP 2 Liberal

Lost in e-Space Questions asked about security and probity of e-Voting centers go unanswered

The VEC has reported that it has already undertaken analysis and processed voting result from e-Voting centres which raises a number of questions such as what sort of analysis has been undertaken and who has access to this data and how secure is the information?

The VEC assures us that it is secure but will not say what sort of reports and analysis have been undertaken. It is one thing to collect statistical information on e_voting system but it is another if the results of the e-voting have been analysed in the absence of public scrutiny and independent review.

It is wrong to ascertain the results of voting before the close of the polls on Saturday 6:00PM November 25, 2006. This sort of information is readily open to abuse and goes well beyond the sort of sampling you would expect from public opinion poll.

If the information is purely of a statistical nature (i.e.. No results or analysis of voting has been undertaken) then why has this statistical information not been made public.

Information on the number of people who have voted, the number of postal vote application and pre-poll voting should be readily available and published daily on the VEC web site. It's akin to holding an election and not knowing teh total number enrolled.

The main problem as we see it is that the processing of this information is undertaken in e-Space and, it would appear, not subject to proper public scrutiny.

Having asked questions as to the type of analysis and summary data produced the VEC have gone silent.

We have already expressed concern that postal voting application statistics are not readily available and are missing from the reports we have received. Lost in e-Space.

Much more review and analysis is required of our e-voting system before public confidence is assured. The Key to maintaining public confidence is the publication of all statistical data so as to ensure the conduct of elections is open and transparent and subject to proper scrutiny. Something that is missing when information is denied or not available. It is not good enough to just say "Trust us".

Keeping you posted VEC Postal voting statistics still missing and unaccounted

APPLICATIONS FOR POSTAL VOTING CLOSED LAST NIGHT (THURSDAY) AND PRE-POLLING TONIGHT.


The table below is the latest information on postal votes provided by the VEC.

What's missing, again, is that the number of postal votes that have been issued.

Update: 3:00 PM

Having written to the VEC now on five occasions plus one phone call seeking an update on the final number of postal votes issued per district we are still left waiting.. Postal votes closed last Thursday and the number of postal ballots issued per district should have been readily available by now. Even under a manual system this information was available before the poll , under an computerised system and millions of dollars spent the VEC is either unable or unwilling to provide the number of postal ballots issued. WHY? If there is a disputed return this will become an issue in the courts. It is important that all ballot papers are properly accounted for. The provision of this information prior to the counting of the ballot is important. The last thing we want to see is a mysterious undisclosed bundle of 50 ballot papers arrive after the poll has closed.

Those wishing to obtain the missing data and statistics on the number of postal ballots that have been issued as opposed to the number returned should contact :

Glenda Frazer, Manager Election Services
T 03 9299 0590
F 03 9621 1204
M 0413 043 012
Glenda.Frazer@vec.vic.gov.au

--- end of update.

The VEC reports a vague figure of over 200,000 votes issued but for some unknown reason is unable to provide a detailed breakdown figure on each District. Which is surprising as you would have thought that all postal voting applications would have been checked off the electronic voters list before being sent out and as such statistics on the number of postal; votes should be readily available.

The VEC has spent millions of dollars on IT support and this important information cannot be reaily provided. I understand that postal returns are still being processed (even then they are electronically bar-coded) but the number of postal votes issued should have been available. We had requested that this information be provided daily but without success. This information should be on the VEC's web site as part of its committment to maintaining an open and transparent election system.

State Election 2006
24-11-2006 21:32
District	Early Votes	Postal Votes
Albert Park District	3339	2175
Altona District	3527	1025
Ballarat East District	1997	1875
Ballarat West District	3952	1975
Bass District	2606	2649
Bayswater District	2108	2400
Bellarine District	3197	2351
Benalla District	3017	1575
Benambra District	4447	1800
Bendigo East District	3019	1875
Bendigo West District	2173	2049
Bentleigh District	1686	2475
Box Hill District	1606	2850
Brighton District	1850	2400
Broadmeadows District	1171	1075
Brunswick District	2022	1275
Bulleen District	2140	1977
Bundoora District	2347	1500
Burwood District	2038	2674
Carrum District	2675	1950
Caulfield District	4029	3975
Clayton District	1487	1375
Cranbourne District	1807	2325
Dandenong District	2170	1725
Derrimut District	3487	1051
Doncaster District	1810	2175
Eltham District	2796	2050
Essendon District	2866	1600
Evelyn District	2335	2325
Ferntree Gully District	2823	2250
Footscray District	3298	1401
Forest Hill District	1634	2150
Frankston District	2058	2201
Geelong District	2485	2326
Gembrook District	2055	2300
Gippsland East District	3472	1328
Gippsland South District	2238	1175
Hastings District	3384	2176
Hawthorn District	2300	2074
Ivanhoe District	2970	1825
Keilor District	2901	1351
Kew District	1571	1999
Kilsyth District	1936	2675
Kororoit District	3835	1200
Lara District	2106	1750
Lowan District	5135	1525
Lyndhurst District	1755	1775
Macedon District	6265	2099
Malvern District	2106	2200
Melbourne District	3069	1525
Melton District	4586	1125
Mildura District	4957	781
Mill Park District	1645	1175
Mitcham District	1883	2575
Monbulk District	1718	1950
Mordialloc District	1704	2200
Mornington District	3009	2025
Morwell District	4790	1275
Mount Waverley District	2506	2750
Mulgrave District	1668	1575
Murray Valley District	5958	800
Narracan District	4143	1974
Narre Warren North District	1900	2175
Narre Warren South District	2574	2950
Nepean District	4270	3350
Niddrie District	1781	1601
Northcote District	2650	1825
Oakleigh District	1423	2225
Pascoe Vale District	1514	1450
Polwarth District	1905	1850
Prahran District	2203	2025
Preston District	1534	1400
Richmond District	2433	1224
Ripon District	3219	1550
Rodney District	2532	1000
Sandringham District	1869	2425
Scoresby District	2260	2475
Seymour District	1872	2352
Shepparton District	3893	600
South Barwon District	2549	2499
South-West Coast District	7059	1600
Swan Hill District	2353	949
Tarneit District	3328	1450
Thomastown District	1317	1025
Warrandyte District	2222	2423
Williamstown District	1824	1449
Yan Yean District	2720	1976
Yuroke District	1951	1425
	236822	165309

We will keep you posted.