LM Poll Stats Doyle versus the rest

Analysis of the 2008 City of Melbourne Lord Mayor Election showing a head to head competition Doyle versus all other comers.
Head to head statistical analysis of the Lord Mayor Vote

Candidate	Vote	%	Doyle	%	Total
McMullin	26987	46.56%	30974	53.44%	57961
Singer	26711	46.08%	31250	53.92%	57961
Ng	26613	45.92%	31348	54.08%	57961
Fowles	26006	44.87%	31955	55.13%	57961
Brandt	24911	42.98%	33050	57.02%	57961
Morgan	24770	42.74%	33191	57.26%	57961
Columb	21855	37.71%	36106	62.29%	57961
Roberts	19434	33.53%	38527	66.47%	57961
Crawford	19005	32.79%	38956	67.21%	57961
Toscano	18145	31.31%	39816	68.69%	57961

LM Poll Stats Group Candidate tickets

Analysis: Lord Mayor HTV Ticket table

Candidate	Papers	% to Total Vote	Ticket votes	% Ticket to Candidate
Doyle	15135	26.11%	6862	45.34%
McMullin	7267	12.54%	3755	51.67%
Bandt	8729	15.06%	3745	42.90%
Singer	6056	10.45%	2548	42.07%
Ng	6314	10.89%	2227	35.27%
Fowles	5004	8.63%	2218	44.32%
Morgan	4526	7.81%	1575	34.80%
Columb	2712	4.68%	1046	38.57%
Crawford	684	1.18%	223	32.60%
Toscano	815	1.41%	222	27.24%
Roberts	719	1.24%	191	26.56%

Doyle leading Lord Mayor race is close and still not over

Early analysis with 27,000 votes counted indicates Robert Doyle is set to scrape home with ALP Peter McMullin coming in second place.

The electron count is not finalised and the projected results are subject to final analysis. There are two very close conjunctions between Catherine Ng and Gary Singer, Catherine Ng and the Greens with less the 100 votes difference between the the two. If the Greens survive its a McMullin Doyle toss with Doyle winning.If Ng surveys its still Doyle. Doyle looks unbeatable have caught all the drift.

Inverse donkey vote or well known name. A recount is looking more and more less likely as the count progresses. The only chance of a surprise win is if Singer and out poll Ng but with a gap of 600 votes this is unlikely.

Update: 50% of the vote counted the gap has widened and Robert Doyle looks as if he is unstoppable. There is a close call that keeps changing the order of elimination between Catherine Ng and The Greens but Doyle still comes up trumps.

Candidates	Vote Counted	Percentage
DOYLE, Robert / RILEY, Susan	8672	26.76%
NG, Catherine / MAKINGS, Terry	3561	10.99%
TOSCANO, Joseph / ELY, Margaret	495	1.53%
COLUMN, Nick / CALDWELL, Sue	1524	4.70%
BAND, Adam / MALTZAHN, Kathleen	4799	14.81%
CRAWFORD, Robert King / KENNEDY, Michael	391	1.21%
ROBERTS, Shelley / FARAH, Abdiaziz	391	1.21%
SINGER, Gary / PAINTER, Joanne	3314	10.23%
FOWLES, Will / WILSON, David	2750	8.49%
McMULLIN, Peter / WILSON, Tim	4035	12.45%
MORGAN, Gary / ANDERSON, Michele	2473	7.63%

Singer's Team Melbourne shows promise Breaking away from the chorus Singer moves ahead of Catherine Ng in preview

The City of Melbourne count is labouriously proceeding as the numerous electoral officials proceed to deflap and open ballot paper envelopes. We are told that there are all up around 61300 envelopes received. The VEC could not provide an accurate figure as such we are left with an approximation only.

In the absence of a preliminary sorting of ballot papers as is the case in a Federal Election it is virtually impossible to properly scrutinise the ballot, The VEC rejected the recommendations made the the State Parliament that ballot papers be resorted into primary votes prior to data-entry. So it is now left to a random sampling process.

Whilst it is still too early to give an accurate trend, indications are that Robert Doyle is receiving 20% of the vote sampled to date. In a surprise, yet welcomed outcome, Gary Singer from Team Melbourne is doing better then expected and could outcall his running mate Catherine Ng. The combined vote of Singer and Ng, who preference each other, would be greater the the Greens. This could prove interesting as Shelly Roberts also tops up Singers vote before being distributed to McMullin. Singer could retain the vote and out poll McMullin. If this trend holds then we could see Gary Singer take Catherine Ng place rising above the chorus and becoming the lead vocal. His main competition would be Robert Doyle. Doyle's campaign was noted for his absence from the campaign, relying purely on the name recognition factor.

Now I am not a Doyle backpacker, you understand, I think he would be a disaster for Melbourne (Mainly due to his choice of deputy lord mayor and his lead candidate in the Council ballot)

Again the information available is too patchy and too few to determine the outcome overall.There is also a built in bias in the count in that ballot papers are batched in a pseudo order based on the delivery time and collection, information that is not readily available to scrutineers. Unfortunately the count is not open and transparent, But we will keep you posted as results and trends become more clear.

VEC occupational hazard Not enough room to breath let alone to work

Scrutineers are reporting that the data-entry of preferences is being held in a 10 x 15 metre room with 18 data-entry personal crammed in and no room for scrutineers.

It is hot and oxygen is in short supply. It is reported that many mistakes in the data-entry are being made as a result. First data-set should be available around lunch time. With 18 data-entry operators and 11 candidates in theory the room should be able to accomodate over 200 people. Fantatic logicistial planning on behalf of the VEC. If a recount is on the cards you can expect a full house

Estimated time to data entry is 14 hours based on the VEC estimate of 15 sec per vote

Crikey.com has edited censored comments about Bill Lang and Steve Tully. "Censorship at its worst", Thanks to Vex News for publishing the facts.

Steve Tully Under review

Allegations of threats and intimidation is an abuse of authority.

There was no act of bulling or harassment as claimed by Steve Tully, Chief Electoral Commissioner.

Mr Steve Tully's accusations are false and not supported by the facts.

Mr Tully was not even present at the briefing in question.

Having spoken to a number of people present at the meeting all stated that Mr Tully's statement is a gross over-reaction to criticism at the way in which the VEC elections are to be counted.

There was no grounds or justification to Mr Tully's statement or his accusations.

The reason behind Mr Tully's emotive outburst is simple, Steve Tully had come under serious criticism in relation to his conduct of the 2006 State election along with concern that he may have deliberately mislead the parliament in his evidence given to the State Parliamentary committee on electoral matters.

Mr Tully had cut corners and in the process he made a number of serious mistakes during the conduct of the 2006 State election.

Under the terms of the Local Government Act and regulations the Returning Officer is required to preliminary sort ballot papers into primary votes which in turn is used to reconcile the number of votes pertaining to the election as part of the process of scrutiny of the ballot.

Mr Tully has opted to once again cut corners and ignore requests that the count be open and transparent and that the ballot papers be subject to a preliminary distribution as required under the Act for a manual count.

There is no justification for a computerised counting of the Lord Mayors ballot. A majority of candidates had supported calls for the ballot to be counted manually so that it could be subject to proper scrutiny.

The Victorian Parliament in reviewing the mistakes made during the 2006 State election recommended that the VEC preliminary presort ballot papers into primary votes as is the case with Federal elections. Mr Tully chose to ignore the parliament's recommendation and the request made by candidates and others. Mr Tully directed Mr Bill Lang, City of Melbourne's Returning Officer, to reject the request for the preliminary sorting of ballot papers undermining the independence of the appointed Returning Officer.

The Chief Commissioner misused and abused his position of authority.

At no time had staff been subjected to any threats and any act that warrants or requires police presence. Steve Tully's statement calling for police protection is a further act of intimidation and harassment against his critics and an abuse of authority.

Mr Tully made similar false threats of intimidation in the leaduop to and following the 2006 State election in which votes went missing during the count and the data recorded seriously flawed. Mr Tully was unable and unwilling to provide access to crucial data related to the 2006 count.

In giving evidence to the parliamentary Electoral Matters Committee, Mr Tully stated that the data records of the 2006 Western Metropolitan Province count had been destroyed and were no longer available. An extraordinary claim given that it costs millions of dollars to count the ballot and it turns out that backup copies of the data were not recorded.

The complaints and submission lodged in relation to the proposed City of Melbourne count were seeking to prevent a repeat of the mistakes made by the Chief Commissioner in 2006. Mistakes that were made as result of a lack of due diligence and denial of access to crucial data by the Chief Commissioner. Mistakes that should be avoided and not repeated with the Melbourne City Council elections.

It is fundamental to our democracy that elections are open and transparent in order that public confidence in the electoral process is maintained, This issue does not just effect the City of Melbourne but the entire State.

The actions of Mr Tully are a form of retribution and intimidation of critics to his administration. This is not the first time Mr Tully has acted in such a manner.

Members of Parliament are very much aware of Mr Tully's acts of intimidation and abuse of process against those who gave evidence to the parliamentary inquiry.

Mr Tully in making false accusations of this nature has raised doubts and questions as to his suitability to hold the office of Chief Commissioner.

Voting Closes 6:00PM

The Victorian Electoral Commission has received back 61300?? envelopes for the City of Melbourne Election as of Friday November 28. With just over 60% of the total number of voters on the roll recored at the close of the poll. A further 10,000 votes are expected to arrive on Monday or Tuesday.


Your ballot papers had to be received by the Returning Officer
BEFORE 6.00PM ON FRIDAY NOVEMBER 28, 2008

Level 6, Council House 200 Little Collins Street
Melbourne VIC 3000
Phone: (03) 9639 0046

Spring Carnival Closing Event Punters bets close 6:00PM today

An additional 10,000 votes arrive in the mail today. Punters have until 6:00 PM to place their bets. Sportingbet Australia is offering 5:1 on Catherine Ng. Catherine is the favourite to win the race with Peter McMullin (3.5:1)expected to be the other contender left standing as the horses cross the finish line.

The race guide promises an exciting bout and most punters will be hanging to their tickets until the end, with at least three conjunction points where the outcome of the race can be decided.

Race Guide anticipated fold up

The first three contenders to tap the mat are Shelley Roberts, Bob Crawford, and Joseph Toscano each polling less then 600 votes. Crawford and Toscano votes will top up the Greens and Roberts will go to Singer.

The next out will be either Singer or Column or Morgan. Singer's votes will flow to Catherine Ng and Columb Morgan votes will combine into one team.

The next elimination head to head will be between Will Fowles and the Greens. If Will is ahead of the Greens then the Greens vote will top up Fowles which would put him a head of Peter McMullin placing Robert Doyle back in contention. The odds are the Greens will out poll Fowles, in which case Fowles vote will top up McMullin placing him in the top three and the Greens set to top up Catherine Ng at a later stage in the race.

It is here the race gets exciting and punters begin to hold their breath and cling on to their form guide as they stare at their betting coupons and begin to pray.

If the combined vote of Morgan and Columb do not out poll the Greens and the two minor candidates then they are next to fall over Morgan's initial votes will flow to Catherine Ng and Columb's are expected to flow to McMullin/Wilson. There will also be an expected preference drift from both camps to Robert Doyle, who should be still standing at this stage of the race. However if Doyle polls at the lower end of expectation then the Doyle will be excluded and his vote will flow to Catherine Ng giving her the Yellow jersey earlier then expected. Doyle collects no support from other players and is relying on name alone drift to stay in the race.

The next elimination is the key when the Greens are exclude from the race. With Will Fowles out of the race the Greens top up Catherine Ng with some drift to Peter McMullin. At which time Catherine will be in a position close to the inside rail and a certain to win the race having came from behind and crawled up the middle. If for some reason Catherine Ng pulls up lame early in the race and Robert Doyle out polls her then McMullin is in a winning position.

Place your bets now while the odds are good and pray that the lord of the turf smiles on the last event.

Orders from Above Bill Lang denies Melbourne an open and transparent election count

Bill Lang, City of Melbourne's VEC Returning officer rejects call for an open and transparent count of the City's vote bringing the conduct of the election into disrepute.

Acting from orders above, in spite the Greens support and their “unofficial” plea - Melbourne City Council’s VEC Returning Officer, Bill Lang, has refused to undertake a preliminary sorting of the ballot papers before data-entering preferences.

Lang's refusal under orders "from above" indicates that the returning officer is not really in charge.

The decision of the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) to not undertake a preliminary primary vote distribution undermines public confidence and demonstrates the VEC's Chief Commissioner's level of contempt for the Victorian Parliament which had recommended as part of its review of the 2006 State Election that ballot papers should be presorted prior to data-entry. Presorting would have enabled better and proper scrutiny of the count, ensuring that the conduct of the election is fully open and transparent It also provides a check digit to ensure that the data-entry count is correctly reconciled so no votes can go missing unexplained (This was something the VEC failed to do in the 2006 State Election).

The VEC's refusal to respect the determination of the State Parliament demonstrates its unwillingness to self-regulate its affairs and its inability to conduct an open and transparent count of the vote.

The VEC will prevent scrutineers from properly scrutinising the count which will now be hidden behind the vail of technology undermining overall public confidence in the Victorian Electoral Commission.

If it is tight, as expected (Within 1.5%), then a recount will be required.

The VEC claim that it will take them 15 seconds to data-entry each vote (This does not include time required for batching and administration of the count). There will be 18 data-entry operators keying vote preferences into the VEC database. The counting of the vote will be done in cyberspace, removed from the watchful eyes of Candidate's scrutineers. The time taken to count the Lord Mayor's vote is estimated at 13 hours (18 x 13 or 234 data-entry hours) to count 56000 votes. (We expect it to take much longer then that. - It would have been quicker and better to have counted the Lord Mayor's vote manually est. time 9 hours).

Under the provisions of the Victorian Local Government Act the Returning officer is required to presort ballot papers into primary votes.

Your vote is in the mail. To date, with one day to go, the VEC has received 51176 envelopes back. Voting closes Friday 6:00PM 200 Little Collins Street.

McMullin-Wilson present their credentials laying down a challenge to the big end of town

Peter McMullin and Tim Wilson have presented their credentials to Melbourne's business community. McMullin-Wilson team is without doubt the most experienced and professional team in the Lord Mayor's race offering Melbourne strong leadership and fiscal management.

Tim Wilson, who is a senior consultant at the pro-enterprise think tank "the Institute of Public Affairs" and a senior member of the Liberal Party, has sent out a personal letter to try and shore up the business vote in hope of securing 4,000 votes that otherwise would have gone by default to Robert Doyle.

Robert Doyle has run the most lack lustre campaign of all the main contenders, showing contempt and disengagement from the political process. Doyle is relying on the recognition factor. In the process he has undermined and divided the liberal conservative vote that would have normally been allocated to the likes of Peter Clarke (Gary Morgan) Fiona Snedden (Nick Columb). Doyle appears to be coasting, not taking the election or the electorate seriously. He is expected to help top up Catherine Ng, who is being backed by Ted Baillieu, in what is shaping to be a close contest with two main players, Catherine Ng and Peter McMullin.

Robert Doyle's disengagement in the campaign has erroded his initial vote pull expectation. There are some people who think that Doyle may bottom out and receive as low as 12% of the vote. Expectations are that he will attract around 18-20% but that this level of support will not flow on to his Council Ticket which is headed by Carl "jet set" Jetter.

The McMullin Wilson letter should give McMullin that extra edge in his campaign. Voting closes at 6:00PM Friday November 28.

Officially Its unofficial But there is hope that Melbourne's Democratic Elections will be open, transparent and subject to proper scrutiny

The Melbourne Greens have come on board and Officially supported the campaign to ensure that the counting of the ballot will be open and transparent and that scrutineers will not be denied the opportunity to properly scrutinise the electronic count.

We welcome the Greens official support even though it is unofficial. We only hope that Bill Lang also excepts the need for the count to be open and transparent.

Under the terms of the Local Government Act ballot papers MUST be presorted into bundles of primary votes as part of a manual count. The problem is that the VEC has the right to vary the procedure any way they see fit under a computerised count. Descension in the absence of regulations.

The Victorian parliament in reviewing the 2006 State Election recommended that ballot papers be presorted prior to batching and data-entry. We support the Parliament's recommendation and note that there is nothing that prevents the Returning Officer from undertaking a pre-sorting of ballot papers prior to the data-entry process.

It is a question of self regulation and honesty. The Victorian Electoral Commission has an obligation to ensure that the election count is conducted in an open and transparent manner in order to maintain public confidence. The count must be seen and be above board. (The same policy should also apply to the Below-the-line votes in the Council election)

The Offical Unoffical responce to our concerns

The Greens have made an unofficial request to Mr Lang [VEC Returning Officer for the City of Melbourne] that the VEC bundle the primary votes of the leadership ticket candidates before the data-entry stage. I have reason to believe that Mr Lang will seriously consider doing this despite being under no obligation to do so.

As we are only two days before 'election day', but already some months after the contracts for this election were agreed on, we consider it inappropriate to support any calls for an injunction.

We are happy for you to indicate on your blog (without copying any part of this email) that The Greens give in-principle support to the bundling of primary votes of the leadership ticket only.

Best regards,

Rohan

VEC denies opportunity for proper scrutiny of the Lord Mayor ballot Another Candidate calls for a manual or more open and transparent count

Another candidate has written to the VEC requesting a manual count and or presorting of the ballot papers prior to computer data-entry of preference votes.

Any savings in time by not presorting the ballot into primary votes(Which is debatable) come at the expense of the scrutiny of the electronic ballot denying candidates the right to an open and transparent count.


-- Copy of open letter to Bill Lang --

To: "Bill Lang"
Sent: Tuesday, November 25, 2008 1:39 PM
Subject: Count of Lord Mayoral vote


Bill,

After consultation with Shelley Roberts we would like to support a manual count of the Lord Mayoral vote. We believe that this will enable a more open and transparent process than the proposed computer only count. We can understand the usefulness of a computer system in the more complex councillor ballot (but even here the presorting, checking and manual count of primary votes would be appropriate). We believe that the straight forward preferential nature of the simpler Lord Mayoral ballot (the same as state and federal lower house ballots) lends itself to a manual count with easier scrutineering. If it is your decision to proceed with a computerised count,we would request that the ballots be at least sorted, checked and counted according to primary vote prior to any data entry.

Nothing in this request should be taken to reflect on or infer in any way a want of confidence in you and your dedicated staff, rather we have a preference for a simple manual count which would avoid any inadvertent mistakes during data processing and allow scrutineers to undertake their role in the more tried and true fashion.

Yours sincerely,

Garth Head
on behalf of Shelley Roberts.
Candidate for Lord Mayor City of Melbourne

So why did John quit? Talk around town points to Ngp>

With the Spring Carnival Circus event coming to a close we are left to ponder why John So decided to not run for a third term? Surely if he stood he would have been elected? So why did he not stand again?

John is a likeable person, you can not help but smile and enjoy a conversation with him.

The answer to the question "Why did john not stand for a third term?" lies with Catherine Ng, John So's lead candidate in 2001 and 2004.

Take a walk down China Town and you will see just how divided they are. Peter McMullin with the support of John So and Kevin Louey have been actively campaigning within the Chinese Community. McMullin's poster's are on display, but as is often the case in the Chinese community, the real decisions are made in quite on the street and in the Chinese community newspapers where Catherine Ng has not been doing so well. Peter McMullin/Keven Louey have been doing extremely well in China Town, just how well will not be known until the weekend when the ballot is counted

Talk around Town Hall has it that John could no longer work with Catherine Ng, which explains why John had not openly supported Catherine Ng's bid to succeed him. Instead he has backed Peter McMullin and Gary Singer to be he replacement as Melbourne's next Lord Mayor.

There is no doubt that many of the negative issues surrounding John So's leadership are connected back to Catherine Ng. If this election is close as most expect it will be then it is the Chinese community that will decide which direction Melbourne will head.

The Melbourne Chinese community, which represents around 13% of the electorate, is divided.

The Chinese community is well aware of the fallout between John So and Catherine Ng. It is ear as daylight as John has not embraced Cathrine's campaign. John So is reported and having said that he and his wife can not get on with Catherine. They no longer talk to each other. It would have been wrong for John and Catherine to be publicly seen to be at odds with each other. Rather then try and force her out John decided to not contest the next election.
Catherine Ng has been the subject of a number of complaints within the town hall of harassment and abuse staff. Catherine is on the nose with many from the Chinese community she can not count on the level of support that was given to John So.

If Catherine can manage to secure more votes then Peter McMullin then yes she has a chance of becoming Melbourne's second Chinese born Lord Mayor. Catherine Ng is best placed in terms of the various preference deals that are on the table, she collects preferences from just about everyone, but I would not throw the IChing dice just yet.

The vote is in the mail Melbourne voters who do not vote face $57 fine

Herald Sun

VICTORIAN councils are expected to reap millions of dollars from voters who fail to vote in next week's local elections.

Melbourne City Council voters have until 6pm on Friday to get their ballots to their returning officer, or they face a $57 fine.

Non-resident voters and voters older than 70 are not obliged to vote at council elections.

But if the Victorian Electoral Commission fines only 10 per cent of non-voters, councils could reap a revenue windfall of more than $2 million in fines. And some predict the sum may be higher.

On Friday evening, only 24 per cent of the ballot papers had been returned in the Melbourne Council election.

"We would normally expect about half the votes to in by now," Lord Mayoral candidate Peter McMullin said.

The VEC said yesterday it would not fine people whose ballot papers arrived on the Monday after the election, but their votes would not be counted.

Double standards? The Age under review

The Age newspaper has published a review of Melbourne City Council Lord Mayor candidate Peter McMullin. (Copy below)

It raises some interesting questions but in the process it has also brought into question why the Age had not applied the same standard of questions and inquiry to other candidates? It most certainly has gone light on Robert Doyle who is seen as the favorite and most likely candidate to win the election. Likewise it failed to question the validity of the catch phrase "Keep politics out of politics" as it makes good media copy.

Robert Doyle, former State leader of the Liberal Party, has hardly been seen in this campaign. yet he is expected to win hands down on recognition factor alone. By Contrast Peter McMullin has attended all functions and all public events and by doing so has demonstrated a commitment to Melbourne and the seriousness of the campaign.

Running as an independent Peter McMullin has put together an impressive bipartisan professional team. His deputy lord mayor candidate Tim Wilson is a prominent conservative member of the Liberal Party and his lead candidate is Lord Mayor, John So's former chief of staff, Kevin Louey.

Peter McMullin, like other candidates who are seeking election, is also a long standing member of a political party - The Australian Labor Party (something he has not tried to hide).

The Australian Labor Party, along with the Liberal Party, have not endorsed candidates for the City Council election, yet Peter McMullin is coping flack for his party membership even though he is running unendorsed as an independent using his own resources and money.

The fact that McMullin's team is bipartisan gives testament to the level of his independence from party politics.

Nick Columb, Gary Singer, Gary Morgan and Catherine Ng have all criticised party involvement in Town Hall, even though each of them also have members of the major political parties on their teams. Nick Columb is supporting Fiona Snedden (Liberal), Gary Morgan is promoting Peter Clarke (Liberal), Catherine Ng's lead candidate is Brian Shanahan (Labor), Gary Singer's Ken Ong (Liberal).

The only political party that has endorsed candidates for election is the Greens. So why is it that Peter McMullin is the only one that comes under the spot light for his party membership?

As to the question of his wealth there are others running in the Council election who are much more wealthy then McMullin. Will Fowles, Gary Morgan, Nick Columb all have a few grand to throw away. The direct election model is expensive and without party backing someone has to pay the bills. The Greens have their party machine and a pool of cash handed them by the Government. Yes McMullin is not the ideal choice but in comparison he is the best of a bad lot.

The answer to the question of why has the Age gone light on other candidates? Who is paying Catherine Ng's bills? The answer to the Age go easy policy of support might be found in the fact that Catherine Ng has a very expensive graphic paid advertisment published on the Age online -displayed very prominently on the same page as the article in question. (Update: The Age has now removed Catherine Ng's ad which was displayed until 12:00 noon on Sunday)

McMullin firms for lord mayor role, but is he a little bit stale?
The Sunday Age

NEXT Sunday Melbourne will have a new lord mayor. There's barely a political commentator in the state brave enough to predict the winner - the city's electoral system is too quirky and the preference flows too unpredictable. But yesterday the bookie's favourite was a man called Peter McMullin.

So, who is Peter McMullin and what sort of lord mayor would he make?
...

McMullin has also secured two important endorsements, one from former premier Steve Bracks, who said he "couldn't think of a better person" to be the city's next mayor, and the other from Lord Mayor John So, who described McMullin as "someone I have always held in the highest regard".

Full text of article click

Who should you vote for? Peter McMullin and Nick Columb should be your first and second choice for good governance

The issues are not which project or ideological dream is good. Every candidate has their pet projects.

The real key issue is corporate governance.
Who will hold them (the administration) to account? In this difficult economic time we believe there are only two candidate groups worthy of support - McMullin Wilson Melbourne's future or Nick Columb's Passion for Melbourne.

Peter McMullin has put together a by-partisan independent team of professionals. Nick Columb has hit the nail on the head with his passionate concern to put an end to the City Council's extravagance and waste.

We need a professional and effective Council who will put an end to the high spending feather bedding empire building. The administration must be held in check and held to account.

Both Peter McMullin and Nick Columb should be your first and second preference choice in this election. -

Voting closes 6PM Friday November 28.

Columb's touch of relish in town hall street fight

Jo Chandler The Age
November 22, 2008
Photo: Vince Caligiuri

Nick Columb: In the race for lord mayor.

LORD mayoral aspirant Nick Columb might choke on the comparison, as he's no fan of the incumbent, but there's more than a touch of the John So's about his own history. Both are the sons of wealthy businessmen whose fortunes were lost to the march of communism — in So's case, it was the 1949 Chinese Revolution, while Columb's inheritance vanished when the Russians arrived in Romania at the end of World War II.

So's family were insulated by some investments that underwrote a new life in Hong Kong. The Columb family also fled to a new country, using the last of their money and connections first to buy his father's way out of a Bucharest jail in 1946 — "one key at a time" — and then to furnish a railway car with a secret compartment in which father, mother and infant Nick hid for the ride across the border to Austria, later travelling to France and, eventually, Australia.

John So and Nick Columb both ultimately capitalised on capitalism, accumulating new fortunes with the single-mindedness of so many migrant sons. But while So, who arrived in Australia as a 17-year-old student, never did get a handle on the language, Columb, who landed at Station Pier as a four-year-old speaking "Romanian, German with an Austrian accent, and French", lost no time acquiring a firm grasp of the Australian vernacular. "Get f---ed," he was famously quoted as telling a turf writer who second-guessed his horse Imposera's narrow 1988 Caulfield Cup win as he bolted to the mounting yard to collect the trophy.

Finally, John So was also considered a rank outsider for the job of Lord Mayor when he first won it in 2001.

Now the migrant melting pot of Melbourne has thrown up Columb as one of the 11 starters in the race to replace So in the job. "I think I'm a rough chance," says Columb over coffee at Southbank, a stroll from the city apartment that's been the nexus of his move into city politics.

In truth, he's more fancied than that and in terms he can appreciate. According to Sportingbet he's gone from 11-to-1 odds to now be ranked in third place behind the favourites — Labor-backed Geelong councillor Peter McMullin and former Liberal Party leader Robert Doyle. And no, says the long-time punter, he did not put money on himself, though he does admit to putting about $25,000 into his campaign.

So who is this dark horse?

Columb, 62, is no household name, though he's a player in sporting and business circles. Most of his adult life has been preoccupied with making money, losing it, and making it again. And with horses. He spent almost 20 years as chairman of the Thoroughbred Owners' Association. The only position he has held that might approximate to public office was as president of the Footscray Football Club. But as the man who signed the failed merger with Fitzroy in 1989, for many supporters his era was less than glorious.

Columb says his involvement with Footscray dates to his earliest days in Melbourne. The father of one of his kindergarten mates played for the reserves. "His mum would take Chris and I to the footy, and we'd watch his dad and meet Charlie Sutton and Teddy Whitton and all those blokes who became my heroes, and later in life became my friends. I remember going home to my mother and saying, 'I need you to knit me a jumper, red, white and blue'." She did, but got the colours in the wrong configuration. "I cried and cried apparently. She unravelled the jumper and she knitted it again."

Columb loves to spin a yarn, especially one that draws on the rich pickings of a varied life. Telling stories was his trade for a brief while, when he was a cadet journalist at the Herald, until his editor suggested he might be better off seeking his fortune somewhere other than newspapers. After a journey through public relations, he made his first pile capitalising on the '70s penchant for handicrafts by setting up a fair selling the wares of Eltham artisans out of a stadium in Albert Park. "In three days, 57,000 people came through, and they paid me $2 each. The chairman of BHP wasn't making that sort of money. So I was off."

It spun into a deal to manage and sell space on the prize wheel for Channel Nine that endured from the days of Graham Kennedy right though to Don Lane, and then to music expos that brought the youth market into the Exhibition Building in droves.

The empire grew to a pub, private hospitals and the magnificent Morning Star estate at Mount Eliza. Then, when the economy hit the skids in the early 1990s, the banks revalued the assets, called in the loans and it all fell over. "I went to bed a rich man, woke up a poor one."

He started over again, and in the past 15 years property development has largely underwritten a financial recovery, though never, he says, back to the scale of his earlier empire. Throughout it all, his distraction and passion were his horses. He's had 17 group one winners over the years. "I grew up watching horses and watching the old man have a bet, and that was where I guess I got the bug."

Why now, in his 60s, a different race? He says he's worried about city safety — "where I live, I hear screams, I see fights. It's not a safe city … As a 62-year-old, I can't walk up to town to have a plate of pasta and walk home at midnight. I can't."

He's also concerned about what he sees as the erosion of the power and relevancy of Town Hall, and the party political plays that occur there. Which is why he says he's putting his hand up for the job, as an independent.

His ticket essentially gave his preferences to Labor's Peter McMullin, and he was expecting a similar arrangement in return, which didn't happen. McMullin apologised. "That's like stabbing someone in the back and when you notice he's still alive, offering to pay his hospital bills," Columb said.

While he continues to deplore the party games, there's more than a touch of relish in his engagement in the city street fighting.

VEC's contempt Bill Lang refuses to ensure that the conduct of the municipal election is open and transparent

The Victorian Electoral Commission is set to repeat some of the mistakes they made in 2006.

Bill Lang, Melbourne City Council’s Returning Officer, has refused calls for the Lord Mayor's election to be counted manually. There is no justification for a computerised data-entry count. A number of candidates in the election have supported the call for the count to be open and transparent.

If the computer count is to proceed then the VEC should presort ballot papers prior to batching them ready for data-entry.

Whilst there is nothing in the legislation that requires a presorting of the ballot, other then the obligation to ensure that the election is open and transparent, there is nothing that prevents the VEC from presorting ballot papers into primary votes, as is the case in Senate elections.

The election of Lord Mayor of Melbourne is expected to be close and the presorting of ballot papers would significantly assist in the orderly scrutiny of the ballot whilst maintaining an open and transparent counting of the ballot.

Without presorting of the ballot it is impossible to effectively scrutinise a computerised data-entry count of the election.

The Victorian State Parliament in its report on the Conduct of the 2006 Victorian State election had recommended that ballot papers be presorted prior to data entry. (See comments below for copy of extract from the Parliamentary Inquiry)

By refusing to initiate a presorting of the ballot papers the VEC has thumbed its nose at the State Parliament demonstrating its level of contempt and inability to self-regulate the conduct of the election in order to maintain an open and transparent electoral process.

A complaint has been forwarded to the Minister, Richard Wynne and the Victorian Parliamentary Electoral Review Committee.

Seven days Less then 25% votes received back

With less then one week to go, as of Friday November 21, the VEC has received back for the City of Melbourne in the post 23844 envelopes. This is less then 25% of the number of voters on the roll.

Voting closes on Friday November 28 at 6:00PM Ballot papers must be received by the Returning Officer prior to this date and time

Bill Lang
Level 6, Council House
200 Little Collins Street
Melbourne VIC 3000
Phone: (03) 9639 0046

Morgan Gallops towards the finish When your losing just go for it

Gary Morgan, eccentric millionaire with a twist, gave an impressive performance in the Herald Sun live blog. He powered through the hour answering more question then any other candidate and it was not just quantity, he answered over 52 questions, but also quality that counted.

Morgan who is running to support Peter Clarke in the Council election has published

One mailing and a small amount on printing. I've taken money from nobody.

Unlike Robert Doyle, Gary Morgan has attended all public functions and participated in the public debates. He was quick to attack Catherine Ng and Robert Doyle over their participation and attendance of meetings

[Comment From Tony] What do you say about Councillors who don't show up to council meetings like Catherine Ng? How will you raise the standard of our representation?

It's outrageous Cr Ng didn't attend the meetings. Particularly, as she was chairwoman of the building and town planning committee. I will request that all councillors attend, unless they have a genuine excuse - Robert Doyle hasn't attended many of the residential meetings over the [last] two weeks.

[Comment From coasting] Robert Doyle appears to be coasting to victory in this election, mainly on name recognition. Do you think it's right someone could be elected with little scrutiny?

You're correct. Blame the media. They have done a poor job in bringing the issues to the attention of the voters. He has to be favourite to win.

It is this last point that I particularly want to support "Blame the media"

The media has been rather remiss in not addressing the issues and being more critical of the various statements being made. The Age in particular has been appalling, pushing its hidden agenda and failing to publish or report faithfully replies to allegations made by Catherine Ng and others promoting a false ethos of "Keep Politics out of Politics."

Peter McMullin whilst a prominent member of the ALP is running unendorsed. He has put together an impressive team which crosses the political divide. His candidate for Deputy Lord Mayor, Tim Wilson, is a senior member of the Liberal Party.

Just because someone has a commitment to public debate and the political process does not preclude them or limit their ability to represent Melbourne. To the contrary it is in many ways an added bonus as they can bring to bear their considerable experience and networks into play to benefit the city.

Catherine Ng herself is promoting Brian Shanahan as her lead candidate. Brian Shannahan is a member of the ALP who prior to the campaign had supported the notion of ALP endorsement.

Yes Political parties should not endorse candidates in local government (The only party that has is the Greens) but that should not preclude or prevent any candidate who is an active member of a political party from participating in community affairs. It is a cheap shot and one that does not stand up to proper scrutiny. Scrutiny that the media has not provided.

Morgans comments are worth reading. I have a soft spot for the Morgan family, Gary's Morgan's brother, Geoff (now deceased) was a strong supporter of local issues and yours truly.